***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 0.0 1.2 3.6 87.9 83.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 -0.8 0.1 0.7 3.2 87.2 80.8 -3.8 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 1.0 2.6 0.9 3.5 88.1 83.3 -2.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -4.1 -3.4 -1.9 3.1 79.6 78.6 -8.0 -6.3 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 -1.3 -0.3 -0.5 3.7 86.0 84.1 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 -2.1 -1.5 -2.0 4.1 87.2 87.7 -5.9 -4.2 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 -0.7 0.6 0.8 3.3 88.8 81.5 -3.7 -2.8 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -5.3 -2.1 -0.9 4.4 95.3 89.8 -9.5 -7.4 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 -0.2 1.4 -0.1 3.6 89.9 84.9 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 -0.7 0.4 -0.6 4.2 93.5 88.0 -4.5 -3.0 -2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 -0.9 -0.3 -0.8 3.8 88.3 84.9 -4.6 -3.5 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 -2.2 0.6 -0.7 4.1 93.4 88.6 -6.0 -4.5 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 -1.0 1.1 -0.8 4.1 95.2 91.0 -5.3 -4.0 -3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 -0.6 0.2 -0.1 3.5 85.7 82.4 -3.3 -2.1 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 73.7 74.7 -3.5 -3.0 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 -0.7 0.5 -1.2 3.8 87.3 85.4 -4.0 -3.1 -2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 -1.2 0.2 0.4 3.0 87.4 78.9 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 -2.7 -1.6 -1.0 4.3 91.5 87.9 -6.5 -5.0 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 -0.7 0.2 0.5 3.1 86.2 80.8 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 -5.3 -2.5 -1.6 5.0 99.5 93.4 -11.1 -8.3 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 -0.8 0.1 0.8 3.7 88.7 84.3 -3.5 -2.9 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 -1.6 -0.2 0.4 2.9 87.1 78.7 -4.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 -1.0 -0.2 0.3 3.0 84.1 80.9 -4.1 -2.7 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 -1.0 -0.1 -0.3 3.6 87.5 83.8 -4.3 -3.5 -2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 3.4 84.1 82.4 -3.2 -2.2 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 -1.7 -0.6 -0.8 3.9 88.8 86.9 -5.4 -3.3 -2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 -0.8 -0.3 0.6 3.6 87.4 83.8 -3.5 -2.8 -1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 3.2 78.7 78.2 -5.4 -4.7 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 -3.0 0.6 -1.4 4.6 93.8 89.4 -7.3 -6.1 -5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 -0.5 0.6 0.9 3.4 87.1 82.0 -3.8 -2.7 -2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------