***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 15.3 31.3 37.7 101.4 59.4 52.8 16.4 23.6 33.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.5 34.8 98.1 53.5 51.0 13.8 24.0 32.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 20.8 34.4 38.1 100.8 57.5 51.5 22.4 29.7 40.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 44.7 43.1 42.3 98.2 55.2 50.6 29.0 39.6 52.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 25.9 37.9 43.4 102.5 56.7 51.9 31.7 36.5 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 33.1 31.0 43.9 104.4 54.9 53.7 20.4 30.7 36.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 26.7 26.0 34.8 100.9 58.9 53.0 14.5 24.5 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 61.7 62.3 49.6 109.5 59.4 54.8 37.8 57.7 64.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 27.5 29.4 46.2 107.9 61.9 54.7 21.0 26.1 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 33.8 33.7 50.1 109.9 60.2 55.2 27.2 30.7 34.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 20.6 32.5 43.1 107.2 58.6 53.8 20.0 27.7 34.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 31.1 34.9 42.7 107.7 59.7 54.0 18.4 28.5 36.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 23.2 35.8 43.4 106.4 61.5 54.2 19.0 32.0 36.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 48.5 49.6 46.5 100.9 58.4 51.4 35.0 44.2 53.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 16.1 24.0 40.5 93.2 51.3 48.9 14.8 21.8 44.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 20.0 31.2 41.5 105.3 58.8 53.0 19.2 29.5 34.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 27.5 25.9 34.3 99.3 54.2 51.5 13.3 25.0 35.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 33.8 33.3 53.7 108.0 58.7 54.1 23.5 30.9 39.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 34.4 31.9 35.3 96.5 52.1 49.5 15.8 31.8 35.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 33.0 36.6 64.0 109.0 60.5 55.3 22.3 27.5 40.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 20.2 32.3 42.1 104.9 60.7 53.1 21.7 28.4 35.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.6 29.0 36.3 98.5 51.2 50.3 12.5 27.9 31.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 17.9 30.5 37.3 96.5 55.0 49.1 14.4 26.6 35.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 30.6 44.3 46.5 103.8 57.8 52.1 32.8 42.8 46.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 22.6 36.1 43.4 102.0 63.3 52.9 23.9 32.6 36.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.6 43.1 103.7 57.2 53.2 17.8 25.6 35.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 18.6 31.4 41.8 104.1 62.7 54.8 19.0 28.5 33.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 14.7 21.4 40.7 96.4 51.0 49.5 18.5 21.3 34.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 57.4 56.1 57.3 106.7 57.9 54.0 37.9 52.7 60.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.1 26.3 35.4 99.1 57.8 51.5 16.8 22.4 32.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------