***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 3.6 6.2 9.3 113.5 65.7 57.5 0.2 2.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.4 4.0 7.7 92.4 58.8 51.0 0.8 2.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.0 6.0 8.9 104.8 62.2 53.4 0.4 2.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.4 11.1 107.4 63.8 51.3 3.2 8.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.1 11.5 112.5 62.5 53.8 1.8 6.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.9 11.6 108.5 59.1 53.0 1.3 6.3 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.9 5.1 8.0 96.2 62.3 53.3 0.9 2.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.3 12.5 106.8 64.1 52.8 5.2 8.6 10.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.8 5.5 11.7 114.1 64.0 55.2 1.2 3.8 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.1 7.6 12.5 109.8 65.3 54.6 2.6 4.4 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.3 11.3 112.8 67.1 53.2 1.7 5.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.4 6.0 11.3 111.1 65.9 53.2 2.3 3.8 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.6 9.0 11.8 113.8 63.5 54.4 1.4 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.8 10.4 98.6 59.8 52.1 1.6 4.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.9 5.6 10.2 98.8 61.4 46.9 0.2 2.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.0 8.4 11.3 114.2 64.6 53.1 1.8 4.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.0 7.3 88.2 56.8 49.3 1.4 3.3 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.5 5.3 13.0 104.1 61.7 54.1 1.3 3.1 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.2 7.6 91.0 55.8 49.8 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.1 14.7 96.1 58.2 51.6 2.6 4.7 5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.7 7.8 10.5 113.6 67.7 55.4 0.5 3.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.1 7.5 85.8 52.7 48.0 1.2 2.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.6 8.0 93.2 54.3 49.8 0.2 2.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.2 10.9 103.3 60.7 53.4 2.0 4.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.6 8.4 11.6 118.4 69.0 58.1 1.2 4.3 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.5 11.2 107.7 59.9 52.4 1.7 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.0 8.6 10.7 117.7 68.1 59.2 0.7 3.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.5 6.1 10.6 104.0 62.2 48.6 0.6 3.3 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.8 13.4 98.7 57.7 52.4 3.2 7.9 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.5 4.5 8.1 97.9 60.8 53.0 0.6 2.4 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------