***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.3 12.9 12.9 121.8 66.6 58.3 1.2 6.2 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 9.3 11.4 117.6 68.1 55.4 1.1 6.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.5 13.4 123.8 67.9 58.3 2.7 6.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.1 13.9 14.4 117.8 69.3 57.9 4.9 9.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.1 14.9 15.2 124.2 70.0 59.0 5.6 10.1 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.3 14.7 116.0 66.4 57.8 3.6 8.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.2 9.7 11.3 119.6 71.5 57.0 1.6 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 20.1 16.6 126.2 70.2 59.2 9.4 12.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.2 13.1 15.9 127.8 71.3 59.5 2.2 7.2 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.2 17.2 130.3 72.0 59.8 5.7 9.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.0 14.8 126.7 70.7 58.9 4.3 7.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.5 12.3 14.2 123.4 69.0 59.0 2.4 5.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.8 16.9 14.3 121.3 66.0 59.5 4.1 8.3 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.6 17.0 16.6 122.0 65.8 58.7 3.6 6.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.8 13.5 110.4 68.8 56.7 0.9 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.4 14.1 123.5 68.6 58.8 4.1 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.7 10.7 113.5 66.2 55.1 1.2 5.1 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 14.0 18.8 130.7 72.1 60.4 5.3 6.8 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.5 11.9 116.9 65.3 55.4 1.3 6.8 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 14.2 20.9 126.8 69.1 59.3 3.8 6.4 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.4 15.8 14.8 126.9 70.3 59.5 3.4 6.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.9 11.5 114.7 63.8 54.9 1.0 5.9 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.0 13.1 117.2 64.2 56.7 1.2 4.4 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.8 15.1 16.6 126.6 69.8 59.5 4.9 8.6 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 17.3 14.9 122.8 68.9 58.7 4.0 8.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.8 11.6 13.9 114.7 63.0 57.9 4.2 8.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.1 14.0 122.9 69.0 58.9 2.7 8.4 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.1 11.6 13.9 115.6 68.8 57.5 1.4 4.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 19.5 19.6 127.7 69.8 59.8 7.7 13.9 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.9 8.9 11.8 119.7 68.1 56.3 1.3 4.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------