***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.7 12.3 116.1 64.6 59.8 1.7 4.7 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 5.1 7.7 11.5 115.1 66.3 60.2 1.3 3.8 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.7 12.0 12.5 117.3 65.0 60.3 3.8 6.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.0 13.6 116.7 66.0 58.7 4.0 8.8 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.2 13.3 117.6 67.4 58.8 2.4 5.9 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.7 8.1 13.5 123.5 63.3 58.7 2.2 5.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 5.0 7.1 11.4 118.2 67.7 60.3 1.6 4.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.9 17.4 15.6 130.2 68.5 62.3 5.4 7.0 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.2 9.6 14.3 123.8 67.7 60.4 2.7 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.0 15.6 128.4 69.3 61.7 3.9 7.3 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.9 13.1 124.4 68.6 60.2 2.2 4.7 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.5 11.1 13.0 124.7 66.4 60.2 1.7 3.8 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.0 8.0 12.9 120.1 62.5 58.2 2.4 6.1 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.5 14.7 118.0 70.4 59.8 7.6 9.8 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.5 14.0 114.5 67.2 57.7 0.5 9.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.2 6.3 12.4 118.9 63.4 58.5 2.1 3.5 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.0 5.4 11.4 119.3 66.9 59.1 0.8 3.3 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.4 17.0 125.6 67.6 61.2 4.3 6.9 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.0 9.9 11.7 114.0 65.4 60.4 2.8 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 11.7 12.9 21.6 131.8 70.2 63.2 3.2 5.8 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.7 10.8 13.2 119.8 66.7 59.7 3.3 5.1 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 5.1 9.1 11.6 114.4 66.6 58.3 1.3 3.7 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.3 9.3 12.2 115.5 66.2 60.8 3.8 6.1 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.1 14.7 121.3 66.2 60.0 7.1 10.5 14.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 5.9 9.0 13.9 115.5 63.9 59.4 3.4 4.6 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 4.7 8.1 13.5 126.1 67.1 60.5 1.0 3.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 4.8 7.7 13.5 117.1 65.3 60.5 2.0 3.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.1 8.9 13.3 115.6 66.3 57.9 0.4 4.9 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 21.1 17.8 18.6 125.5 67.5 61.3 9.2 12.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 5.5 9.3 11.7 115.0 65.5 60.4 1.8 3.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------