***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 0.4 0.1 3.1 40.5 35.5 29.7 0.1 1.2 3.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.7 1.8 4.2 56.3 50.2 38.5 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 0.8 0.8 3.4 43.1 35.6 31.0 0.7 2.2 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.4 2.1 3.2 36.3 26.6 26.0 2.4 4.4 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 1.3 1.1 3.4 40.0 26.8 26.9 1.6 4.1 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.1 1.3 4.1 53.1 43.3 37.9 0.5 2.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.5 1.1 4.0 57.4 50.5 39.3 0.2 1.1 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.1 4.9 58.2 42.9 37.2 2.3 7.9 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 1.7 1.1 4.2 49.9 33.6 33.1 1.1 4.3 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.3 4.7 53.9 38.9 34.9 2.5 4.8 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.1 2.0 3.9 49.0 37.3 33.4 1.3 4.9 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.6 1.8 4.2 55.8 42.4 36.7 0.7 3.5 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.6 4.4 55.8 43.7 38.3 1.0 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.3 4.8 50.8 39.7 33.3 3.6 5.6 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 0.5 0.4 2.8 32.1 32.8 27.8 0.4 1.4 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.0 1.4 3.7 48.3 39.0 33.7 1.0 2.2 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.6 3.3 4.9 67.4 59.8 42.2 0.3 1.3 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.1 5.0 53.4 36.9 33.5 2.6 4.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.7 1.0 4.1 52.4 46.0 36.4 0.3 1.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.9 6.8 64.3 44.0 38.7 3.1 5.1 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.1 1.2 3.6 44.1 32.9 31.2 1.3 3.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 0.5 3.1 5.7 71.6 59.5 42.3 0.0 1.2 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 0.9 0.4 4.0 47.9 38.9 33.9 0.2 2.0 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.4 2.3 4.3 47.6 36.0 32.2 1.8 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 0.5 0.3 3.0 34.7 28.7 25.2 0.5 1.5 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 2.8 1.0 4.5 53.7 41.9 38.4 0.8 1.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 0.8 0.3 3.5 43.7 37.3 31.3 0.3 2.2 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.4 0.6 2.9 34.4 29.6 26.2 0.9 3.3 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.0 6.5 5.6 57.1 38.7 35.0 4.7 8.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 0.4 0.5 3.8 51.4 44.9 36.3 0.2 0.9 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------