***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 4.9 5.4 5.0 1.4 65.5 65.5 2.5 4.5 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 5.4 5.7 5.2 1.9 72.0 71.0 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 6.5 7.0 5.3 1.5 67.5 66.6 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 1.4 1.5 2.8 1.4 66.3 65.9 -2.1 0.4 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.5 3.2 1.0 61.0 60.7 3.0 4.7 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.0 2.4 0.9 61.1 59.4 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 5.3 5.5 5.0 1.7 71.1 69.7 1.2 3.6 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -0.9 2.7 0.6 58.6 56.7 -1.9 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.6 4.2 1.1 61.4 62.2 3.7 5.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.6 3.4 0.8 59.7 58.9 3.4 4.8 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.9 3.1 0.8 59.3 59.0 3.3 4.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.7 2.9 0.6 58.1 56.7 3.9 4.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.4 2.7 0.5 58.1 56.0 3.1 4.4 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 7.1 7.2 4.8 1.4 65.1 64.9 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.5 6.0 3.5 1.9 74.7 72.2 3.5 3.8 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.0 2.8 0.8 58.9 58.5 3.5 4.8 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.5 5.2 2.0 74.1 73.2 1.9 3.5 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.6 3.0 0.5 56.3 54.9 2.6 3.4 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 5.8 6.3 5.4 1.8 72.3 70.7 2.2 4.3 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.1 49.8 50.0 0.9 2.0 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.9 4.7 1.2 61.3 63.9 3.3 5.0 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.6 5.5 2.1 75.9 74.2 2.5 4.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 5.6 6.4 5.4 1.7 72.2 69.2 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.9 4.4 1.0 60.9 61.1 4.1 5.7 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 4.0 4.7 3.6 1.3 62.1 65.1 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.7 2.3 0.4 55.8 53.7 3.1 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.6 4.3 1.3 63.8 64.5 2.7 4.4 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 6.3 6.2 3.2 1.5 68.7 67.6 4.1 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.3 2.2 0.2 52.1 51.8 0.5 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 5.4 5.8 5.2 1.7 71.2 69.0 1.6 3.9 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------