***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.7 4.7 0.7 55.8 55.1 2.1 4.9 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.7 4.9 1.0 60.1 57.8 2.8 5.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.3 5.0 0.8 56.3 56.2 3.7 5.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.2 1.9 2.8 0.9 58.9 57.0 -1.8 0.7 4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.7 3.2 0.7 56.2 54.7 3.5 5.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.5 2.0 0.4 48.4 53.0 2.7 5.5 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.3 4.7 0.9 59.1 57.6 2.0 4.8 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.7 -0.3 2.4 0.2 50.6 52.4 -3.1 -0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.4 3.9 0.6 55.2 54.5 4.1 6.5 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.7 6.6 3.1 0.3 52.6 52.8 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.8 3.0 0.4 53.5 53.5 3.7 6.2 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.0 2.8 0.2 49.9 52.2 4.1 6.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.4 2.3 0.1 47.6 50.8 3.6 5.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.1 4.4 0.6 55.3 55.0 4.7 7.6 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.4 3.1 1.2 61.1 59.6 4.6 6.2 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.2 7.0 2.6 0.4 51.9 52.9 4.1 6.4 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.6 4.9 1.1 61.6 59.0 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.8 2.8 0.1 50.4 51.4 4.0 5.8 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.1 5.1 1.0 60.0 57.7 3.0 5.5 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.5 1.9 0.8 -0.2 43.4 49.7 1.2 2.7 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.2 4.5 0.7 55.1 55.4 3.9 6.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.5 5.2 1.2 62.3 59.2 3.7 6.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.9 5.2 0.9 59.1 57.1 4.1 5.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.3 4.1 0.5 53.1 53.9 4.4 7.2 10.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.4 3.2 0.7 56.8 55.0 3.1 4.5 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.8 2.0 0.0 45.2 50.1 3.3 5.0 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.9 3.9 0.6 56.0 54.4 3.0 4.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.1 3.0 1.1 59.4 58.0 5.7 7.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.5 1.9 -0.1 46.5 50.2 0.8 2.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.2 4.9 0.9 58.3 57.0 2.3 4.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------