***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.4 5.5 2.1 72.1 68.5 0.6 2.9 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.0 6.0 5.5 2.4 75.1 71.4 0.5 1.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 6.2 5.8 5.6 2.0 72.2 67.8 0.7 3.6 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 1.7 2.9 3.0 1.8 69.3 67.1 -2.8 -1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 5.9 5.8 3.5 1.6 67.5 64.1 1.8 3.9 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.2 2.7 1.3 60.5 60.2 1.8 3.4 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 4.9 5.3 5.3 2.3 75.4 71.2 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.1 0.2 2.8 0.9 59.7 58.2 -2.3 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 7.1 6.5 4.5 1.7 68.5 64.8 2.0 5.2 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.8 3.6 1.2 62.6 60.4 1.4 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.4 3.4 1.4 64.9 62.5 2.0 4.3 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.1 3.2 1.1 60.8 59.9 1.9 4.1 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.6 2.8 1.0 59.3 58.0 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 4.6 5.5 4.7 1.6 68.0 62.5 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.2 6.2 3.5 2.3 74.8 72.7 0.2 2.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.2 3.0 1.3 63.4 60.9 2.6 4.9 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 4.7 5.9 5.2 2.5 77.0 72.1 0.5 1.5 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.9 3.1 0.8 56.1 56.3 1.6 2.5 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.7 5.6 2.3 74.3 70.4 0.1 2.3 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.3 49.2 51.4 -0.1 2.3 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.2 5.1 1.9 70.7 66.4 1.3 4.4 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.3 6.7 5.5 2.5 77.6 72.0 0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 4.2 5.1 5.6 2.1 73.1 68.0 0.6 2.0 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.1 4.5 1.4 63.5 61.2 1.6 4.3 5.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 4.3 4.5 3.9 1.9 70.4 68.0 0.9 2.9 4.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.5 2.7 0.9 55.8 57.9 2.9 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.6 4.7 1.9 71.1 67.7 0.9 4.0 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 5.9 6.2 3.3 1.9 70.0 68.2 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.5 2.8 2.2 0.5 50.9 53.6 0.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.1 5.5 5.5 2.3 74.3 70.2 0.4 2.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------