***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 6.4 4.8 5.1 1.7 69.8 71.6 2.0 2.6 4.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 6.6 7.7 5.6 2.6 79.2 78.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 7.6 7.3 5.6 2.0 75.1 74.1 2.3 3.5 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 2.4 2.9 2.9 1.7 74.7 74.0 -2.3 0.1 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 3.6 4.4 3.1 0.9 65.0 65.5 2.6 3.1 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 4.1 5.3 3.0 1.0 64.8 63.3 2.5 3.7 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 5.9 5.2 5.2 2.4 76.1 75.9 1.2 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.1 1.4 3.2 0.9 65.1 64.1 -2.1 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 7.1 6.4 4.5 1.4 70.0 69.2 3.2 3.9 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 6.1 5.0 4.0 1.2 68.5 67.8 2.4 3.4 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 4.1 5.1 3.2 0.7 62.6 63.2 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 4.7 4.6 3.0 0.6 61.5 60.1 3.1 4.4 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 3.8 4.0 3.4 0.6 60.7 58.6 2.7 3.4 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 9.3 9.6 5.8 2.4 77.9 75.9 2.5 3.8 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 6.0 6.2 4.4 2.5 77.7 78.0 2.0 4.3 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 4.4 4.8 3.0 0.7 63.2 61.9 3.4 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 5.7 6.6 5.7 3.1 83.8 80.9 1.2 2.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 2.3 2.5 3.5 0.7 65.0 63.6 0.4 1.9 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 6.9 7.4 5.8 2.6 78.2 77.9 1.4 2.9 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 0.4 0.8 2.1 0.2 57.9 56.0 -0.9 0.1 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.6 6.1 4.9 1.4 71.3 70.2 2.7 3.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 5.9 8.0 6.1 3.2 83.8 81.3 1.2 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 7.1 6.6 5.8 2.5 76.8 76.5 1.4 2.6 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 8.6 8.1 5.0 1.6 73.2 71.3 2.9 4.0 5.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 5.6 6.0 4.1 1.6 76.6 73.5 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 3.8 3.5 2.6 0.2 54.3 53.4 2.4 3.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 6.6 5.9 4.6 1.6 72.3 71.2 2.0 3.1 4.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 6.2 6.5 3.6 1.9 73.8 73.3 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 1.6 3.5 2.8 0.4 58.8 58.6 -0.1 1.3 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 6.1 5.9 5.4 2.3 76.3 75.1 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------