***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -1.1 -2.1 0.6 48.8 53.8 -4.9 -0.9 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -0.6 -1.9 1.0 57.4 57.8 -5.6 -1.8 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 0.8 0.0 -2.3 0.7 48.4 54.7 -2.1 0.0 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -4.7 -6.0 -4.9 1.1 49.0 56.4 -8.1 -5.6 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -3.0 -4.6 0.9 47.7 54.7 -4.9 -2.7 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -3.8 -4.4 -6.5 0.1 47.0 50.4 -5.2 -4.4 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -0.8 -1.9 1.0 57.7 57.9 -5.1 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -6.9 -8.7 -6.2 0.1 41.8 48.8 -10.3 -7.4 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -1.3 -3.8 0.9 47.4 54.2 -4.0 -1.0 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -2.2 -5.4 0.5 45.1 51.3 -4.7 -2.0 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -3.1 -5.0 0.5 44.1 51.8 -5.2 -2.6 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.4 -4.9 -5.6 0.1 40.6 48.6 -5.4 -4.0 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -3.8 -5.8 0.1 43.1 48.7 -4.4 -3.5 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -1.4 -3.9 0.5 41.7 51.7 -3.6 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -4.0 -2.2 -4.4 1.0 49.9 57.3 -3.8 -2.2 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -2.7 -5.5 0.5 43.6 51.5 -4.1 -2.4 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -0.5 -1.7 1.3 59.3 59.2 -5.6 -1.4 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -3.6 -4.6 -6.1 0.3 44.7 49.9 -6.2 -3.9 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -0.7 -2.0 0.9 55.0 56.8 -5.1 -1.3 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -7.7 -8.9 -7.7 -0.2 46.3 47.3 -10.6 -8.6 -5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -1.9 -2.9 0.8 47.6 54.5 -4.7 -1.5 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -0.6 -1.7 1.2 59.2 58.5 -5.8 -1.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -1.7 -2.4 0.7 48.0 55.0 -4.5 -1.5 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -2.4 -4.2 0.5 43.6 51.8 -4.7 -1.6 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -2.8 -4.0 0.9 47.8 54.8 -4.5 -2.5 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -4.3 -5.5 -0.1 41.3 47.5 -4.5 -3.4 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -2.0 -3.0 0.8 49.1 54.6 -4.5 -2.0 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -3.1 -4.7 1.1 50.1 57.1 -5.7 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -4.1 -5.1 -6.7 0.1 45.8 48.5 -6.9 -4.9 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -0.6 -2.0 0.8 54.8 56.6 -5.3 -1.2 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------