***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 2.2 76.1 72.8 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -0.5 -0.3 2.5 78.3 74.0 -4.9 -3.0 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 0.3 0.9 -0.5 2.1 76.0 73.0 -2.8 -1.2 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 -4.1 -5.0 -3.8 2.1 68.3 68.9 -8.9 -5.9 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 -1.7 -1.5 -3.2 2.0 69.3 68.3 -4.0 -2.6 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 -2.4 -3.2 -4.5 1.8 59.8 64.3 -4.4 -3.4 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 2.5 78.3 74.0 -4.6 -3.1 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -6.1 -6.3 -4.0 1.6 59.3 63.2 -8.4 -6.4 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 -0.4 0.3 -1.9 2.3 76.3 72.2 -3.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 -1.5 -1.1 -3.3 2.0 66.6 66.6 -3.8 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 -1.5 -1.5 -3.2 1.9 66.3 67.1 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 -2.0 -2.4 -3.3 1.8 62.9 65.3 -4.2 -2.9 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 -1.8 -2.1 -3.8 1.7 61.1 63.7 -3.7 -2.9 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 -0.9 -0.8 -2.4 1.7 68.0 65.0 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 -1.2 -0.3 -2.6 2.9 79.1 76.7 -4.6 -2.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 -1.0 -1.6 -3.8 1.8 63.5 65.0 -3.3 -2.0 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 -1.6 -0.5 -0.3 2.6 79.1 73.6 -4.8 -3.6 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -3.7 -3.9 -4.6 1.3 56.7 58.8 -4.5 -4.1 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 -1.1 -0.5 -0.5 2.3 77.9 73.6 -4.8 -2.7 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -6.3 -7.4 -6.0 0.8 48.1 54.0 -8.8 -6.8 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 -1.0 -0.3 -0.9 2.3 76.4 73.5 -3.8 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 -1.7 -0.7 -0.4 2.6 78.9 73.5 -4.3 -3.3 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 -1.5 -0.7 -0.9 2.1 75.5 72.0 -4.4 -3.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 -1.9 -2.0 -2.7 1.6 65.4 64.4 -3.8 -3.3 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 -1.3 -0.9 -2.2 2.2 73.6 71.9 -3.6 -2.3 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.3 -3.4 1.7 61.6 63.5 -4.0 -2.7 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 2.2 75.5 72.0 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 -2.2 -1.3 -3.3 2.4 72.2 71.6 -5.1 -4.0 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -4.3 -4.6 -5.6 0.7 51.3 53.4 -6.1 -4.7 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 2.3 77.5 73.6 -4.4 -2.7 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------