***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 26.2 33.6 48.8 122.1 67.0 62.5 17.2 23.6 33.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.8 30.2 41.0 116.0 66.2 60.7 13.8 23.9 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 34.6 39.5 47.5 118.1 64.7 60.9 21.9 31.4 41.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 42.0 56.3 56.8 122.0 68.6 61.9 29.6 37.8 53.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 38.0 44.1 58.8 125.3 69.2 64.4 27.7 35.1 41.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 38.6 45.1 60.6 135.7 78.8 69.6 20.5 29.1 38.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.6 29.3 40.5 116.3 65.8 60.6 15.7 24.4 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 59.7 65.3 59.4 116.4 65.9 59.5 36.8 56.1 65.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.4 29.9 55.7 116.8 63.3 60.7 20.7 24.0 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 32.9 33.0 58.3 114.8 63.3 59.3 26.9 30.0 34.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 32.6 35.5 56.9 122.6 69.2 62.6 21.0 29.5 33.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.6 37.6 54.6 118.8 68.1 60.6 18.3 24.9 36.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 32.9 42.3 60.1 124.9 71.3 64.3 19.2 29.2 38.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 45.4 48.5 56.0 109.8 59.6 56.7 35.0 41.5 53.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.9 44.2 50.9 117.7 67.8 60.2 14.6 21.8 43.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 31.1 36.2 55.2 121.1 68.7 61.6 18.2 28.9 35.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.1 30.7 38.0 110.4 62.9 57.6 13.2 23.7 31.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 30.8 35.6 59.1 111.5 62.0 57.8 22.0 27.4 37.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 32.7 35.7 42.4 116.0 65.6 60.7 15.4 31.5 35.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 32.5 39.5 74.1 113.8 65.1 58.7 19.7 27.5 40.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 31.4 34.5 52.4 117.2 65.2 60.4 21.5 28.0 35.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 27.3 30.0 39.8 108.6 63.2 57.3 14.9 24.0 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.5 34.4 45.4 114.7 63.2 59.6 15.3 26.1 35.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 40.8 44.1 53.9 111.3 61.5 57.5 31.7 37.7 45.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 33.8 37.7 58.1 125.2 70.6 64.7 25.5 31.6 37.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 37.2 39.8 59.5 129.5 73.4 67.0 16.4 25.7 35.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.0 35.9 52.7 124.6 69.8 64.3 18.5 26.7 33.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 24.5 37.3 53.0 120.8 68.8 61.3 15.5 20.7 35.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 56.7 58.2 62.4 110.4 62.0 57.0 35.5 52.0 61.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.8 31.8 42.8 117.8 66.3 61.4 18.9 24.0 31.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------