***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 0.7 2.7 9.6 90.3 55.2 47.2 0.4 1.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.3 8.0 84.3 55.0 47.2 0.5 1.1 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.9 9.5 88.4 55.8 46.9 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.3 10.7 85.3 56.7 44.9 3.2 6.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.0 11.0 86.7 56.0 45.6 2.1 5.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.4 12.3 103.7 58.7 50.8 1.6 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.2 7.3 78.5 53.4 46.1 0.7 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.5 10.4 12.8 94.3 55.7 48.7 5.9 9.2 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.6 11.4 86.7 56.1 46.1 1.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.0 12.4 90.3 53.9 47.3 1.8 4.5 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.8 11.2 90.4 54.0 47.0 1.6 3.6 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.0 11.6 96.8 57.5 49.2 2.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.7 12.2 97.3 58.1 49.5 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.6 11.6 85.4 53.1 47.3 1.1 3.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 5.1 9.8 83.3 58.6 44.9 0.3 2.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.1 11.2 92.3 56.1 47.7 2.0 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.5 7.3 79.7 57.9 46.5 0.7 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.6 12.4 87.9 52.6 47.1 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.6 8.7 88.9 56.6 48.2 0.4 1.2 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.5 15.7 89.7 54.4 48.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.6 10.5 86.2 55.2 46.1 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.3 8.2 83.8 56.4 47.0 0.6 1.7 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.1 9.7 91.7 58.8 49.2 0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.9 11.0 85.3 52.5 46.7 2.0 3.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.1 10.7 86.3 52.9 45.7 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.1 11.5 96.1 58.4 49.0 1.8 4.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.9 10.0 88.5 53.5 46.8 0.4 3.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.2 4.2 10.5 88.7 58.3 46.5 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.1 13.2 88.0 52.6 47.6 3.8 9.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 2.5 2.9 8.4 85.9 54.3 47.0 0.8 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------