***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 13.0 12.9 122.2 65.5 57.2 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.8 11.1 117.7 63.8 56.3 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.6 12.1 12.0 111.9 63.0 54.8 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.7 13.7 109.5 63.1 54.1 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.4 13.6 106.1 61.6 53.6 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.5 13.1 103.9 61.7 52.3 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.5 10.2 11.3 125.0 65.9 57.8 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.2 13.5 96.8 56.7 51.4 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.6 13.6 102.3 59.6 52.5 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.1 10.8 13.4 94.4 55.9 50.5 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.0 12.6 99.5 58.4 51.7 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.6 6.5 12.5 100.2 59.8 52.2 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.0 13.4 103.3 60.6 52.8 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.0 10.6 13.3 95.3 55.2 50.9 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 7.4 12.9 109.1 65.9 54.8 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.4 12.4 99.5 59.4 51.2 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.9 9.6 11.1 123.4 65.9 58.0 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.9 13.6 91.5 55.6 50.0 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.1 11.0 112.0 62.6 55.1 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.0 17.3 95.1 56.9 50.9 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.7 13.5 13.1 109.0 62.8 54.1 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.1 11.2 114.0 64.6 56.7 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.1 11.4 11.3 105.3 61.7 53.6 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.1 15.5 12.6 94.5 58.6 51.0 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.0 17.6 14.5 119.2 65.3 57.2 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.4 12.9 105.3 62.6 53.1 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.6 13.7 13.7 123.4 66.0 58.2 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.5 7.4 12.7 105.1 62.8 53.3 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.2 13.0 14.5 90.5 55.1 49.8 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.8 10.5 11.5 118.0 64.6 56.2 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------