***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.7 13.7 124.0 66.2 59.8 2.9 4.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.6 7.9 12.6 131.3 70.7 60.8 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.0 12.1 13.6 121.3 67.3 59.0 3.8 5.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.1 14.0 112.9 63.5 54.8 5.4 10.1 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.7 14.8 16.4 131.3 67.9 61.1 1.7 5.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.3 13.3 108.9 63.6 52.9 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.2 7.6 12.5 130.8 68.9 60.3 2.0 4.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.7 15.2 112.5 62.7 52.3 5.6 12.5 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.0 8.8 14.2 110.0 60.7 54.4 2.6 5.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 10.3 13.8 103.0 58.0 50.3 3.5 7.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.8 15.4 123.7 67.6 57.0 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.1 14.4 116.3 64.0 53.3 1.9 8.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.5 14.8 112.9 60.8 54.3 4.7 7.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.8 15.7 111.9 62.0 54.5 7.8 9.7 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.7 13.1 114.4 68.7 57.0 4.9 8.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.2 13.4 108.9 60.9 52.0 2.8 6.0 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.1 7.1 11.5 120.9 67.0 58.4 1.2 4.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.7 14.7 104.0 56.7 50.9 5.2 7.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.7 12.0 12.8 129.0 70.0 60.1 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.4 20.9 115.8 64.7 55.1 4.7 8.7 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.6 13.9 112.3 62.3 55.9 3.3 7.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.1 7.1 11.9 119.9 66.8 57.5 1.7 4.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.4 13.4 123.1 67.8 58.8 2.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.8 14.8 112.0 59.8 54.7 4.0 8.5 14.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.5 11.4 16.4 128.2 65.4 62.3 3.3 5.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.1 13.7 105.6 58.2 52.3 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.4 7.5 15.0 128.6 66.2 61.7 3.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.7 12.8 110.6 66.0 53.8 3.8 5.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 13.0 16.2 106.8 58.7 51.8 8.9 12.5 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.9 10.3 13.0 131.0 70.1 61.0 1.5 3.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------