***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.0 3.5 -0.9 39.2 43.3 2.3 4.0 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 1.8 3.5 -1.0 36.9 42.5 1.5 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 3.3 4.0 -0.9 39.3 43.6 3.1 4.9 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -1.5 0.9 -0.9 40.4 42.4 -2.3 0.2 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.0 2.3 -0.8 42.4 43.4 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 2.9 1.5 -0.6 41.9 44.5 2.7 4.0 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 1.8 3.4 -0.9 38.7 42.4 0.9 3.5 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -1.6 1.9 -0.8 41.5 42.9 -2.2 -1.2 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.4 3.3 -0.7 42.3 44.0 3.6 5.1 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.8 2.5 -0.9 39.9 42.3 3.3 4.8 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.9 2.6 -0.7 43.3 43.5 3.3 4.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.5 2.4 -0.7 44.4 44.1 3.7 4.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.9 2.2 -0.7 43.4 43.6 3.3 4.1 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.1 3.8 -0.8 39.2 43.7 3.8 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.6 3.6 2.1 -0.8 41.8 43.2 3.2 3.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.2 2.0 -0.8 41.9 43.1 3.6 4.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.5 3.6 -0.8 39.2 43.5 1.6 3.5 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.1 2.7 2.3 -0.9 36.8 41.8 2.5 3.3 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.3 2.5 3.7 -1.0 36.8 42.5 2.0 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.4 0.6 0.8 -0.9 35.8 41.4 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.3 3.9 3.8 -0.7 41.6 44.5 3.2 4.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.9 3.8 -0.8 38.2 43.7 2.1 4.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.3 2.5 4.0 -1.0 37.4 43.0 2.3 3.9 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.1 3.6 -0.9 38.4 43.1 3.8 5.7 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.7 2.3 -0.9 39.3 42.3 1.9 3.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.7 2.0 -0.5 45.2 45.9 3.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.6 2.9 3.0 -0.9 38.2 42.0 2.5 4.2 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.1 1.6 -0.8 41.0 43.2 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.8 0.7 1.7 -0.9 36.8 41.4 0.6 2.0 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 1.6 3.4 -1.0 37.5 42.4 1.4 3.6 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------