***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.0 5.2 0.4 50.1 54.6 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.9 4.9 5.1 0.2 49.9 53.8 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.2 5.8 5.7 0.4 51.9 54.8 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.4 -0.1 2.6 0.4 52.3 54.2 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.3 3.9 0.5 54.3 54.4 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.9 2.8 0.4 54.0 52.9 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.3 5.1 0.2 48.6 53.9 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -1.2 3.3 0.2 50.6 52.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.7 4.6 0.5 53.0 54.0 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.4 3.9 0.3 49.9 52.5 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.0 3.9 0.4 53.8 53.5 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.0 3.8 0.3 53.3 53.3 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.8 3.1 0.3 55.3 53.1 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.8 5.1 0.4 50.0 53.9 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.2 3.3 0.4 52.2 54.6 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.3 3.4 0.4 54.0 53.2 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.6 5.2 0.2 48.7 53.8 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.0 3.9 0.2 48.7 52.2 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.0 5.4 0.3 50.1 53.9 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.5 1.9 2.0 0.1 50.1 51.6 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.3 5.2 0.5 53.6 54.5 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.7 5.3 0.2 49.6 53.8 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.2 5.8 0.3 49.9 54.0 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.1 6.7 4.9 0.3 50.3 53.4 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.4 3.7 0.4 52.5 54.2 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.4 3.2 0.4 52.7 53.9 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.6 4.6 0.3 50.4 54.0 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.3 2.9 0.4 51.2 53.9 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.0 3.2 0.2 48.9 51.8 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.7 5.1 0.2 49.9 54.2 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------