***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.5 3.9 5.1 0.9 57.9 56.6 1.0 1.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 0.8 3.0 5.1 0.8 54.2 56.0 0.9 2.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.1 5.8 1.1 59.7 57.5 1.5 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.4 2.4 0.7 57.3 54.7 -2.5 -1.1 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.8 3.9 1.0 59.9 57.2 2.3 4.5 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.8 3.3 1.4 61.2 59.7 2.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 0.3 2.1 5.0 0.7 54.4 55.7 0.2 2.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.2 3.8 1.3 60.8 59.3 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.8 4.8 1.2 60.2 57.8 2.0 5.2 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.1 4.3 1.3 60.1 58.4 1.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.4 4.0 1.1 59.1 57.7 2.1 4.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.7 4.1 1.2 60.0 59.1 1.7 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.8 3.4 1.1 59.2 58.8 1.9 4.6 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.2 5.5 1.4 62.1 59.0 1.7 4.6 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.0 3.0 0.5 54.0 53.7 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.3 3.5 1.1 58.8 57.9 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 0.7 2.8 5.3 0.9 55.7 56.8 0.5 1.9 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.6 4.3 1.2 59.4 58.3 1.9 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.8 3.5 5.5 0.9 56.2 56.7 0.4 2.3 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.1 59.3 59.3 0.2 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.5 5.3 1.2 60.4 58.2 2.8 4.6 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.3 4.6 5.5 1.1 58.2 57.6 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.2 4.2 6.1 1.2 60.5 57.9 0.7 2.7 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.0 5.2 1.3 60.0 58.1 2.2 4.9 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.1 3.4 3.6 0.8 56.9 55.5 1.7 2.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.5 3.3 1.1 60.3 59.5 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.0 4.4 4.5 0.8 57.3 56.0 1.4 2.6 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.9 2.9 0.8 57.2 55.7 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.8 3.6 1.2 59.5 58.5 -0.5 1.0 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 0.4 3.1 5.0 0.8 55.3 56.0 0.7 1.9 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------