***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 1.2 1.2 2.5 -1.7 32.2 37.7 1.2 2.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 0.6 0.8 2.7 -1.6 32.3 38.4 0.9 1.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.3 3.3 -1.5 37.4 39.5 2.1 3.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -4.6 -3.0 -0.2 -1.6 33.1 37.2 -3.0 -1.4 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.4 37.9 39.0 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.9 0.9 -1.0 38.7 42.9 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 0.3 0.5 2.5 -1.7 32.2 37.8 0.6 1.3 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -1.9 1.4 -1.1 39.9 41.9 -2.1 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.1 2.5 -1.3 38.8 39.9 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.1 1.9 -1.2 39.4 41.2 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.3 2.0 -1.2 40.0 40.2 3.0 3.7 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.5 1.8 -1.0 40.2 41.8 3.0 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.2 1.8 -1.1 38.1 42.0 2.9 4.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.8 3.4 -1.2 40.5 41.8 2.6 3.3 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 0.2 0.6 1.2 -1.6 33.3 37.2 0.6 2.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.9 1.4 -1.3 38.6 40.1 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 0.6 0.8 2.9 -1.3 35.6 40.0 0.7 1.6 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.5 1.8 1.8 -1.1 39.5 42.1 1.4 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 0.8 1.0 2.9 -1.7 33.7 38.4 0.9 2.3 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.5 0.3 -1.0 38.1 42.4 0.4 1.1 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.7 3.2 -1.3 39.9 40.5 2.7 3.5 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 0.8 1.7 3.2 -1.3 38.1 40.6 1.3 2.2 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.0 1.2 3.2 -1.6 36.2 39.0 1.1 2.1 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.0 3.2 -1.1 40.7 41.9 2.5 4.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.1 1.2 1.5 -1.6 34.7 37.7 1.1 2.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.3 1.2 -0.9 38.7 42.5 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 1.5 1.2 2.1 -1.7 32.4 37.2 1.2 3.6 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 0.3 1.6 0.7 -1.5 34.9 38.7 1.4 3.0 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.1 0.9 1.3 -1.1 39.0 42.1 0.3 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 0.6 0.6 2.6 -1.8 32.1 37.6 0.6 1.5 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------