***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 1.2 -3.0 18.2 20.3 1.9 3.3 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 -0.9 -1.5 1.1 -3.3 15.2 17.8 1.0 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 0.5 -0.2 1.4 -3.5 15.8 18.1 1.9 3.8 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -2.5 -3.1 -1.3 -2.9 23.4 24.0 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 1.4 1.2 0.0 -3.1 18.7 20.1 2.1 3.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -3.2 15.6 19.3 2.3 4.1 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 -0.7 -1.0 1.1 -3.1 14.7 17.9 0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -3.0 -3.5 -0.6 -3.6 14.0 16.9 -1.9 0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 1.7 1.5 1.1 -3.1 18.0 20.8 2.5 3.9 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -3.7 14.0 16.6 1.8 3.8 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 1.2 1.1 0.5 -3.2 17.5 20.2 2.0 4.1 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 1.3 1.0 0.0 -3.2 16.7 19.8 3.3 4.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 0.3 0.6 0.5 -3.3 17.3 19.8 2.2 4.0 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 -0.1 -1.3 1.0 -4.0 14.0 16.8 2.5 4.0 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 0.8 1.0 1.0 -2.5 24.9 27.3 2.0 4.0 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 1.5 2.1 -0.2 -3.2 18.0 19.1 2.8 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 -0.9 -0.9 1.0 -3.1 16.8 18.2 0.6 2.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -4.0 13.0 14.9 0.4 1.7 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 -0.8 -1.4 1.1 -3.5 15.6 17.3 0.9 3.3 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 -2.5 -2.8 -1.7 -3.9 11.6 15.7 -0.1 0.5 1.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 1.3 0.7 1.6 -3.2 17.4 20.3 1.9 3.7 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 91 9 0 100 -0.2 -0.3 1.2 -3.3 16.5 18.1 0.7 2.7 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 -0.8 -1.3 1.1 -3.7 15.9 17.2 1.1 2.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 0.3 -0.4 0.9 -3.9 14.4 16.4 2.7 4.8 6.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -3.1 18.6 20.2 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.0 1.4 0.3 -2.5 19.2 24.9 2.2 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 0.0 -0.2 0.9 -3.2 17.1 18.6 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.6 1.8 -0.2 -2.8 23.2 24.5 2.7 4.2 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 -1.3 -2.1 -1.2 -4.0 12.0 15.0 -0.3 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 -0.8 -1.5 1.1 -3.3 15.0 18.0 0.8 2.9 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------