***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 36.4 46.0 61.8 191.4 89.2 86.5 17.2 23.6 33.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 32.9 45.0 56.6 189.6 92.2 86.0 13.8 23.9 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 48.3 60.3 61.9 180.3 89.3 85.3 21.9 31.4 41.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 56.5 65.1 71.3 168.8 87.3 81.5 29.6 37.8 53.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 48.0 60.8 70.5 164.0 88.7 82.0 27.7 35.1 41.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 41.0 62.5 69.7 156.4 88.8 80.8 20.5 29.1 38.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 34.2 40.7 55.5 192.5 91.3 86.8 15.7 24.4 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 71.2 86.4 77.5 162.4 92.0 83.5 36.8 56.1 65.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 30.5 48.2 70.3 161.2 88.2 82.0 20.7 24.0 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 42.2 55.4 74.7 157.1 89.6 82.3 26.9 30.0 34.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 43.0 58.8 66.6 161.3 89.9 81.3 21.0 29.5 33.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 40.7 71.8 68.6 163.3 91.5 82.4 18.3 24.9 36.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 48.3 64.7 68.5 160.1 90.1 82.0 19.2 29.2 38.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 57.3 74.9 72.8 162.4 90.5 83.2 35.0 41.5 53.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 43.5 62.3 65.5 158.1 82.7 75.6 14.6 21.8 43.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 38.4 51.0 65.9 162.3 88.8 80.9 18.2 28.9 35.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 36.9 46.2 52.2 184.8 92.5 83.8 13.2 23.7 31.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 41.3 64.2 80.9 157.3 88.6 82.8 22.0 27.4 37.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 37.3 58.4 58.1 185.7 92.4 85.5 15.4 31.5 35.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 49.1 82.2 102.8 169.3 93.8 85.7 19.7 27.5 40.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 43.2 49.3 66.7 172.7 89.0 84.0 21.5 28.0 35.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 37.9 59.7 54.7 177.2 92.0 82.1 14.9 24.0 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 37.7 47.6 61.2 175.6 90.8 84.4 15.3 26.1 35.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 51.5 57.7 72.2 162.5 88.7 83.1 31.7 37.7 45.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 43.2 63.2 72.7 183.4 88.1 86.2 25.5 31.6 37.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 38.7 53.0 67.2 156.3 90.4 78.9 16.4 25.7 35.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 37.8 45.5 68.1 191.1 89.4 87.1 18.5 26.7 33.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 36.2 57.4 67.1 159.7 84.6 77.6 15.5 20.7 35.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 70.1 100.1 87.2 160.0 91.3 83.7 35.5 52.0 61.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 32.8 51.7 57.8 189.4 90.9 86.4 18.9 24.0 31.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------