***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 4.9 6.1 10.4 126.2 72.8 58.3 0.4 1.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 3.5 4.4 10.1 136.4 73.2 60.2 0.5 1.1 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.0 6.2 10.8 122.3 70.0 57.6 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.1 11.4 107.0 68.2 56.8 3.2 6.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.6 11.4 107.0 66.8 56.7 2.1 5.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.9 11.3 106.1 65.2 56.3 1.6 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.1 5.1 9.8 133.9 72.5 59.6 0.7 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.2 13.5 12.4 109.7 66.2 57.9 5.9 9.2 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.1 11.6 106.9 67.3 55.7 1.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.8 12.2 107.0 65.7 56.4 1.8 4.5 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.7 6.0 10.6 106.2 65.5 57.1 1.6 3.6 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.2 5.3 10.7 108.4 66.6 58.2 2.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.6 11.0 107.5 66.9 57.9 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 4.8 8.7 13.1 121.0 69.6 57.7 1.1 3.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.0 7.4 10.3 99.9 70.2 54.4 0.3 2.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.3 10.4 105.7 65.8 57.2 2.0 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.6 4.3 9.2 136.5 71.7 60.0 0.7 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.4 13.5 109.6 65.5 56.4 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 4.5 6.5 10.5 136.7 72.6 60.2 0.4 1.2 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.9 16.4 113.5 67.3 57.9 2.3 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 4.7 5.9 11.1 113.2 68.6 56.5 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.0 6.8 10.1 144.5 74.0 61.4 0.6 1.7 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.0 3.7 11.3 132.0 71.2 59.4 0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.2 7.8 12.4 113.6 67.0 56.3 2.0 3.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.8 8.0 12.1 120.6 72.8 57.8 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.8 10.7 105.3 64.3 56.5 1.8 4.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 7.6 11.5 127.2 73.1 58.5 0.4 3.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.3 6.3 10.6 101.4 68.4 55.2 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.8 14.6 111.4 66.4 57.3 3.8 9.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 3.6 4.2 10.3 132.8 72.9 59.5 0.8 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------