***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.3 14.0 13.2 133.6 69.0 60.5 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.5 13.6 13.0 147.5 77.7 60.9 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.9 15.6 13.5 128.3 68.6 59.3 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.9 14.9 112.9 68.5 55.2 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.5 15.0 106.2 63.9 53.6 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.4 15.5 104.2 60.2 51.3 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 10.4 13.7 12.8 150.7 78.8 61.6 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 15.2 16.2 97.6 57.7 50.5 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.1 15.2 105.6 63.9 53.3 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.5 16.4 101.4 61.3 51.8 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.2 14.2 102.6 63.8 52.6 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.2 13.9 97.3 58.1 50.2 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.7 14.7 103.1 58.1 52.0 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.3 17.4 15.9 118.2 66.9 56.4 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.7 8.3 14.2 114.2 70.5 53.5 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.6 12.2 14.1 105.6 64.1 53.4 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.9 12.4 149.2 77.2 59.8 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 13.5 18.0 104.4 64.6 52.5 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.0 13.1 142.3 74.6 60.0 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.4 21.2 102.4 61.0 52.0 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.5 14.5 14.0 113.3 64.6 56.2 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.3 12.2 12.8 139.6 73.0 58.0 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 14.5 13.5 131.7 70.3 58.4 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.2 18.2 15.9 112.9 66.9 55.0 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.8 18.2 15.4 123.6 67.8 59.1 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.2 14.4 99.1 55.6 50.3 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.3 14.8 135.0 70.3 61.1 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.6 9.8 14.4 110.7 67.4 53.9 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 18.8 19.4 106.6 64.0 53.3 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.0 14.4 13.1 144.1 76.8 61.4 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------