***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.7 10.1 13.7 151.2 79.2 64.9 2.9 4.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.7 8.6 11.8 135.9 74.2 60.8 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.8 15.3 14.4 147.1 76.7 64.6 3.8 5.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 13.8 16.2 17.5 150.8 77.1 66.5 5.4 10.1 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 12.9 17.5 17.2 142.8 77.1 64.8 1.7 5.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.3 11.9 18.4 140.8 75.3 65.9 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 7.7 9.3 11.7 143.2 76.2 62.7 2.0 4.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.3 21.3 19.6 146.7 79.3 66.2 5.6 12.5 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.3 14.5 17.5 141.7 76.4 64.8 2.6 5.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 11.6 14.0 19.0 142.0 77.7 65.0 3.5 7.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 12.2 14.0 16.5 140.3 76.1 64.1 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 12.1 14.2 17.1 143.8 76.5 65.7 1.9 8.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.2 11.5 17.3 141.2 75.0 65.1 4.7 7.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.6 15.1 17.3 128.9 69.0 60.7 7.8 9.7 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 12.3 14.1 17.3 145.0 78.6 65.1 4.9 8.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.0 10.7 16.2 137.2 74.8 63.4 2.8 6.0 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.1 7.4 10.5 129.4 70.5 58.3 1.2 4.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.8 13.0 20.9 142.8 78.8 65.8 5.2 7.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 12.3 12.2 132.0 71.9 59.4 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 12.3 15.4 25.7 154.3 80.9 68.2 4.7 8.7 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.5 14.3 16.0 148.4 76.3 65.4 3.3 7.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.8 11.2 120.5 68.8 56.6 1.7 4.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.5 13.3 127.2 69.6 58.0 2.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.1 18.0 18.0 139.8 75.0 64.1 4.0 8.5 14.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.6 17.3 16.9 153.9 78.6 67.3 3.3 5.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.8 10.4 18.2 150.0 75.1 67.3 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.8 10.5 15.2 152.5 79.4 66.0 3.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 10.7 12.0 17.0 141.3 76.8 63.8 3.8 5.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 21.6 27.4 22.7 145.9 78.3 66.7 8.9 12.5 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 9.5 12.1 12.3 140.5 76.6 61.9 1.5 3.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------