***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 6.1 29.9 24.4 484.4 97.9 97.1 0.1 1.2 1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 10.1 28.5 21.7 437.8 97.6 96.2 0.3 1.4 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 7.9 32.3 23.3 443.4 98.0 96.1 0.7 1.5 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 6.8 36.6 27.6 404.2 99.5 95.9 2.6 4.0 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 9.5 36.8 26.9 436.4 100.0 96.4 1.4 3.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 10.2 23.3 24.4 413.5 98.0 93.1 0.5 1.7 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 10.5 21.7 21.2 436.3 97.4 96.4 0.3 1.1 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 16.7 65.5 29.2 455.4 99.9 95.5 1.6 3.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 6.7 20.0 26.1 427.6 99.8 95.9 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 11.2 27.9 27.1 413.6 99.9 94.9 0.5 3.8 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 10.9 24.4 25.4 439.5 100.0 94.7 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 9.0 18.0 26.8 457.4 99.5 95.3 0.5 2.0 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.7 19.8 25.5 420.9 97.7 94.2 0.9 2.1 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 13.4 31.5 26.4 375.1 97.9 94.1 1.3 4.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 8.8 26.1 23.7 351.3 96.4 90.9 0.5 1.5 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 12.5 25.1 25.3 444.7 98.5 94.8 0.8 1.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.4 19.7 20.0 397.7 96.6 94.3 0.4 1.5 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 14.3 30.3 28.5 395.1 99.6 94.5 1.8 3.5 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 11.9 25.9 22.2 436.4 97.7 96.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 9.9 40.0 39.5 450.4 100.0 96.3 1.4 3.6 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 6.9 26.6 25.5 451.0 98.6 96.4 1.1 3.0 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.2 23.2 20.6 378.0 96.5 93.8 0.1 1.4 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 9.2 25.9 23.1 414.2 98.0 95.5 0.3 0.9 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 10.5 19.8 25.9 394.6 98.6 94.6 1.4 3.9 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.9 33.3 28.4 454.7 98.3 97.3 0.5 1.8 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 7.6 11.4 23.9 387.3 96.9 92.1 0.6 1.2 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 5.4 31.7 26.6 468.8 98.1 97.3 0.3 1.8 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 7.8 27.3 25.2 385.3 98.2 93.3 1.1 2.3 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 17.8 35.3 30.6 398.8 99.5 94.8 2.8 6.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 11.1 23.8 22.1 449.5 98.0 96.6 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------