***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.6 3.0 -0.6 43.3 44.8 2.3 4.0 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.4 2.8 -0.7 42.8 44.3 1.5 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.0 3.2 -0.5 45.3 45.8 3.1 4.9 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -1.9 -1.2 0.7 -0.6 42.6 44.7 -2.3 0.2 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.1 1.5 -0.6 46.1 44.4 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.0 1.3 -0.1 49.9 50.8 2.7 4.0 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.7 2.7 -0.7 41.7 44.2 0.9 3.5 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.3 -1.3 1.6 -0.3 47.5 48.3 -2.2 -1.2 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.5 2.3 -0.7 44.1 43.4 3.6 5.1 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.1 4.3 2.0 -0.4 45.5 46.2 3.3 4.8 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.0 4.3 1.8 -0.3 49.6 47.8 3.3 4.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.6 2.0 -0.1 51.6 50.9 3.7 4.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.2 1.9 0.0 51.7 52.0 3.3 4.1 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.2 2.8 -0.6 43.7 44.0 3.8 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.6 1.1 -0.6 43.6 44.6 3.2 3.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.7 1.6 -0.2 51.0 49.9 3.6 4.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.7 2.5 -0.8 40.3 43.7 1.6 3.5 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.0 1.9 -0.5 43.0 45.4 2.5 3.3 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.3 3.3 3.0 -0.7 43.5 44.5 2.0 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.3 0.9 0.5 -0.5 40.0 44.9 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.0 2.8 -0.6 45.6 44.7 3.2 4.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.0 2.7 -0.8 40.1 43.5 2.1 4.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.1 3.2 -0.7 43.4 44.4 2.3 3.9 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.7 2.8 -0.5 44.9 45.2 3.8 5.7 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.0 1.7 -0.6 45.3 44.4 1.9 3.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.8 1.7 -0.1 47.5 51.5 3.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.4 2.4 -0.6 43.3 44.4 2.5 4.2 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.5 4.5 1.2 -0.5 46.7 46.9 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.1 1.4 -0.5 42.9 45.2 0.6 2.0 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.8 2.9 -0.7 42.6 44.6 1.4 3.6 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------