***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.5 3.7 -0.4 47.1 46.9 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.3 3.7 3.6 -0.4 42.5 46.7 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.1 3.9 -0.3 46.1 47.3 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -2.4 -0.6 1.4 -0.3 45.8 48.2 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.7 5.0 2.2 -0.1 47.5 49.1 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.3 4.6 1.5 0.0 50.6 49.8 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 0.8 3.4 3.5 -0.4 42.9 46.6 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.4 2.0 0.0 47.8 49.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.1 3.1 -0.1 50.3 49.0 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.3 2.6 0.0 49.7 49.1 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.1 5.3 2.3 0.0 48.2 49.6 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.9 2.4 0.1 48.0 50.3 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.3 2.0 0.1 50.2 50.8 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.1 6.1 3.6 -0.2 46.0 47.5 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.6 1.6 -0.3 44.7 48.3 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.5 5.4 2.0 0.0 49.2 50.1 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.5 3.9 3.5 -0.4 44.4 47.3 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.1 2.6 -0.1 49.2 48.5 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 1.4 3.6 3.8 -0.4 43.2 46.7 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.5 1.3 0.9 -0.2 42.9 47.7 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.9 5.8 3.5 -0.2 48.1 48.3 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.7 5.0 3.7 -0.4 46.8 47.4 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.4 4.0 -0.4 43.5 46.8 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.3 3.5 -0.2 47.4 48.1 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.1 2.1 -0.4 47.0 47.1 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 4.4 1.9 0.1 51.8 51.3 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.3 2.9 -0.4 46.4 46.6 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.6 6.3 1.6 -0.2 47.1 48.9 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.5 1.5 1.9 -0.1 46.9 48.0 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.1 3.1 3.7 -0.4 43.2 46.5 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------