***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.5 1.2 2.5 -0.8 39.0 46.5 1.0 1.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 0.9 1.3 2.4 -0.8 40.6 46.6 0.9 2.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.3 1.7 2.7 -0.6 40.6 47.4 1.5 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -3.1 -2.3 0.4 -0.6 40.5 47.5 -2.5 -1.1 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.0 2.9 1.2 -0.3 42.7 49.2 2.3 4.5 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.0 0.8 0.2 50.5 53.0 2.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 0.4 0.8 2.3 -0.8 40.1 46.8 0.2 2.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -2.1 1.3 0.2 50.1 53.1 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.3 2.2 -0.2 46.1 50.6 2.0 5.2 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.2 1.8 0.1 48.4 52.6 1.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.9 1.3 -0.1 45.9 50.8 2.1 4.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.3 1.5 0.1 48.4 52.2 1.7 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.1 1.1 0.0 46.7 52.0 1.9 4.6 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.5 3.3 2.6 -0.2 44.8 50.0 1.7 4.6 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.6 3.7 0.6 -0.6 42.1 47.4 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.9 1.0 -0.1 46.4 50.9 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.4 -0.7 42.0 47.7 0.5 1.9 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.1 1.7 0.2 48.8 53.0 1.9 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.0 1.5 2.6 -0.8 41.6 46.6 0.4 2.3 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.4 50.6 53.5 0.2 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.3 2.4 -0.4 43.0 48.9 2.8 4.6 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.4 1.6 2.6 -0.7 43.0 47.9 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.9 1.9 2.9 -0.6 43.9 47.3 0.7 2.7 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.5 2.5 -0.1 46.0 50.9 2.2 4.9 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.1 1.2 -0.6 41.0 47.1 1.7 2.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.7 1.0 0.1 51.3 52.1 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.0 1.7 1.9 -0.7 40.7 46.8 1.4 2.6 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.0 0.6 -0.5 43.4 48.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.9 1.2 0.3 49.5 52.8 -0.5 1.0 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.2 2.5 -0.8 39.0 46.3 0.7 1.9 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------