***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 1.1 0.8 0.7 -2.7 21.9 28.4 1.2 2.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 0.5 0.3 0.4 -2.9 18.5 27.8 0.9 1.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 1.5 0.9 0.8 -2.7 23.5 28.9 2.1 3.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 -4.8 -4.0 -1.5 -2.7 22.5 27.1 -3.0 -1.4 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.4 1.8 -0.7 -2.6 24.9 28.9 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.1 -1.0 -2.2 28.4 31.4 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 0.3 -0.1 0.4 -2.8 17.9 27.4 0.6 1.3 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -3.1 -2.3 -0.8 -2.4 27.1 29.7 -2.1 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.2 1.8 0.1 -2.6 24.5 29.7 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 1.6 1.7 -0.3 -2.5 26.4 30.0 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 1.6 1.8 -0.5 -2.3 26.0 30.2 3.0 3.7 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.3 1.4 -0.4 -2.2 27.4 30.5 3.0 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.5 -0.6 -2.2 27.8 31.1 2.9 4.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 1.5 2.3 0.3 -2.8 24.9 28.6 2.6 3.3 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 0.3 -0.2 -1.3 -2.7 21.6 26.7 0.6 2.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.1 2.8 -0.7 -2.3 26.4 30.7 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 0.4 0.0 0.3 -2.9 18.4 27.5 0.7 1.6 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 1.1 1.0 -0.5 -2.6 25.6 29.8 1.4 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 0.6 0.1 0.6 -2.8 19.6 28.1 0.9 2.3 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.9 -2.6 24.5 28.7 0.4 1.1 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 1.7 1.6 0.5 -2.6 24.9 29.3 2.7 3.5 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 0.6 0.2 0.4 -2.9 20.3 27.9 1.3 2.2 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 0.9 0.6 0.8 -2.8 22.5 28.4 1.1 2.1 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 2.2 2.2 0.4 -2.7 25.6 29.4 2.5 4.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 0.9 0.8 -0.7 -2.7 23.1 27.3 1.1 2.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.9 2.8 -0.5 -2.0 26.2 31.2 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.0 0.1 -2.7 21.6 27.7 1.2 3.6 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 0.2 0.7 -1.2 -2.7 23.2 28.0 1.4 3.0 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 -0.8 -1.5 -1.1 -2.6 24.6 29.2 0.3 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 0.6 0.4 0.6 -2.8 19.4 27.9 0.6 1.5 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------