***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 -6.5 -5.5 -4.1 -1.2 30.7 45.4 -5.5 -3.1 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 -6.2 -6.2 -4.0 -1.0 31.7 47.4 -6.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 -3.7 -3.3 -4.5 -1.2 33.7 45.3 -3.4 -1.6 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -9.1 -8.5 -7.4 -0.7 40.5 46.7 -8.8 -6.7 -5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -5.9 -3.7 -7.3 -0.8 40.6 46.2 -4.1 -3.2 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -6.9 -4.8 -8.4 -0.3 46.2 49.4 -6.3 -4.8 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 -5.9 -5.1 -3.9 -0.9 32.4 47.8 -5.1 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -10.4 -8.2 -8.0 -0.3 49.9 48.8 -10.8 -8.2 -7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 -5.7 -3.4 -6.3 -0.8 40.9 46.9 -4.2 -2.3 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -5.2 -3.0 -7.3 -0.5 46.6 48.7 -4.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -6.2 -3.5 -7.9 -0.9 43.5 45.4 -4.3 -2.9 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -6.1 -3.3 -7.6 -0.5 48.8 47.3 -5.3 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -5.0 -3.5 -7.6 -0.3 45.6 48.8 -4.4 -3.2 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 -4.6 -2.9 -6.3 -1.0 40.2 46.0 -4.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -2.8 -6.5 -0.5 42.4 47.7 -3.9 -2.7 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -4.8 -3.0 -8.2 -0.7 43.2 46.2 -4.2 -2.6 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -6.1 -4.9 -3.8 -0.8 33.3 48.5 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -7.2 -4.0 -7.6 -0.4 49.4 49.4 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 -6.1 -5.4 -4.2 -1.1 31.4 46.4 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -10.5 -8.0 -8.6 0.0 52.6 51.5 -9.7 -8.1 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -5.5 -3.8 -5.1 -1.0 37.0 45.7 -4.4 -2.5 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -6.2 -5.3 -3.9 -0.9 33.4 48.1 -5.3 -3.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -5.5 -5.0 -4.8 -1.3 32.0 44.8 -4.7 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 -5.5 -3.4 -6.4 -0.9 41.0 46.7 -4.8 -2.3 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 -5.6 -4.4 -5.9 -0.7 35.2 46.9 -4.4 -2.7 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -5.1 -4.0 -7.5 -0.4 47.2 48.5 -4.9 -3.6 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 -6.5 -5.4 -5.0 -0.9 32.7 46.4 -5.3 -3.2 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 -6.9 -4.7 -7.4 -0.8 39.7 46.1 -5.3 -4.2 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -8.0 -5.4 -8.1 -0.3 52.0 49.7 -8.6 -5.7 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -5.7 -5.6 -4.0 -1.1 31.0 46.6 -5.3 -3.0 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------