***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 -4.1 -4.3 -4.9 -2.6 20.4 27.8 -3.5 -2.3 -1.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 -5.6 -6.2 -5.3 -2.9 16.8 25.2 -3.9 -3.0 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 -3.1 -3.5 -5.2 -2.7 19.3 27.5 -2.7 -1.3 -0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -9.5 -9.6 -8.9 -3.1 21.4 25.7 -8.7 -5.7 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 -4.7 -4.6 -8.6 -3.2 20.4 26.8 -4.1 -2.8 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -5.4 -5.9 -9.3 -2.4 25.4 31.3 -5.0 -3.6 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 -5.8 -6.1 -5.2 -2.9 18.2 26.2 -4.2 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -9.6 -9.8 -9.0 -2.8 26.9 31.1 -9.1 -6.9 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 -4.3 -4.5 -7.5 -3.2 21.6 27.5 -3.3 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 -4.5 -4.8 -8.5 -2.9 24.8 30.2 -3.8 -2.6 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -5.0 -4.8 -8.7 -3.0 23.0 29.1 -4.0 -3.1 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -5.3 -4.9 -8.3 -2.6 28.7 32.0 -4.4 -3.6 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 -5.1 -4.8 -8.3 -2.3 28.9 32.8 -4.2 -3.4 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 -3.8 -4.1 -7.6 -3.3 18.9 25.6 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 -5.2 -5.8 -8.0 -2.9 19.3 25.2 -4.2 -2.5 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -3.8 -4.2 -9.0 -2.8 25.2 30.1 -3.6 -2.2 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 -5.7 -6.2 -5.4 -3.1 16.8 25.5 -5.0 -3.1 -2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -6.2 -6.0 -8.9 -2.9 25.8 30.5 -5.4 -4.4 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 -5.4 -5.9 -5.3 -2.9 16.6 25.1 -4.5 -3.2 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -9.1 -10.1 -10.1 -2.6 28.1 32.6 -9.3 -7.2 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 -4.5 -5.0 -6.1 -2.9 20.6 27.3 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 -5.8 -6.3 -5.5 -3.2 16.8 24.3 -4.2 -3.4 -2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 -4.5 -5.0 -5.9 -3.1 16.9 24.8 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 -4.9 -4.8 -7.5 -3.1 20.8 27.4 -4.4 -3.1 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 -4.3 -4.3 -7.0 -2.6 24.1 27.7 -3.2 -2.6 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -7.8 -2.2 26.7 33.4 -4.6 -3.5 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 -4.6 -4.6 -5.9 -2.7 22.3 28.4 -3.2 -2.8 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 -6.3 -6.5 -8.8 -3.1 20.8 25.6 -5.6 -3.3 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 -6.8 -7.4 -9.5 -3.0 25.4 30.3 -5.8 -4.4 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 -5.4 -6.0 -5.1 -2.8 18.1 26.1 -4.0 -2.8 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------