***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 34.3 35.9 47.6 116.1 66.9 60.6 16.4 26.7 35.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 32.9 33.4 40.2 114.8 67.8 59.8 18.2 23.7 33.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 35.2 43.5 46.4 115.1 64.3 59.3 22.1 29.9 45.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 44.4 44.4 48.5 108.1 60.5 55.6 29.6 40.1 47.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 26.1 41.8 51.3 111.5 65.3 57.1 23.6 36.5 42.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 17.7 37.7 48.5 111.1 60.8 56.0 20.7 28.2 38.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 33.1 34.1 39.3 113.3 65.4 59.5 15.0 24.8 34.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 57.2 66.7 55.6 113.1 66.6 58.1 39.7 52.2 66.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 34.9 30.2 52.9 112.8 65.6 57.7 20.3 23.6 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.8 37.5 55.1 110.7 64.3 56.7 25.6 29.4 38.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 20.3 36.0 50.2 110.0 62.8 56.5 19.3 29.7 36.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 32.2 36.8 51.2 114.7 66.0 59.4 15.8 25.9 36.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 19.3 36.2 51.7 107.5 58.3 54.8 19.1 31.0 41.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 48.4 55.0 59.0 116.4 66.5 58.7 33.4 44.8 54.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 29.3 31.9 45.6 109.0 62.7 56.3 15.5 21.9 42.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 21.0 34.9 49.8 111.0 61.1 56.8 18.0 34.2 36.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.4 29.6 38.0 111.2 63.6 58.5 13.7 25.1 30.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 33.8 38.7 59.4 114.6 67.2 59.3 23.5 30.0 36.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 39.0 35.7 42.2 115.5 67.5 59.6 19.5 32.7 35.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 35.2 43.6 72.0 113.4 65.8 58.2 19.1 29.7 43.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 39.1 34.2 50.7 114.5 63.6 58.8 19.3 26.0 35.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.4 30.8 40.4 111.9 64.2 58.7 16.3 23.8 31.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.3 36.8 46.1 115.4 64.7 58.6 17.2 26.0 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 38.6 43.8 55.1 116.1 67.3 59.4 31.1 35.2 43.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 41.7 36.4 54.0 113.8 64.7 59.4 24.4 30.7 36.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 38.7 38.2 50.0 113.6 66.1 58.8 16.0 28.0 38.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 35.1 33.9 50.3 115.3 65.9 60.4 17.6 27.8 34.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 28.5 31.0 45.1 107.5 60.2 55.0 13.3 22.2 34.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 58.0 62.6 63.9 115.2 67.1 59.7 32.5 52.3 61.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 37.5 33.6 41.9 115.3 67.0 59.9 18.2 25.0 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------