***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 2.8 4.4 10.3 101.2 59.5 51.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.2 8.1 90.6 58.4 50.5 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 3.9 5.6 10.1 101.7 61.9 51.2 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.3 11.7 108.6 62.9 51.8 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.5 12.2 110.7 62.2 52.1 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.4 11.3 103.5 59.4 48.9 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.7 8.0 90.6 58.2 50.3 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.6 12.7 105.3 59.9 50.3 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.0 13.1 112.2 62.8 52.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.5 13.4 108.0 60.5 51.4 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 11.7 108.3 62.0 51.3 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.0 11.5 107.8 61.6 50.9 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.5 12.0 104.5 56.0 49.5 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.1 13.5 107.9 61.7 50.8 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.0 5.9 11.3 107.2 64.9 52.7 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 11.6 107.3 59.8 50.4 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.3 4.1 7.8 88.7 58.6 50.7 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.5 14.1 107.2 60.4 50.9 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.1 8.7 93.6 59.5 50.5 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.5 16.4 99.8 57.5 49.2 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.1 11.9 109.8 62.5 52.2 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.8 8.3 90.6 58.8 50.0 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.6 9.9 99.9 61.6 50.8 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.3 12.7 107.7 62.3 50.8 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.1 12.1 106.5 60.5 51.4 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.3 10.8 101.8 58.2 50.2 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.1 11.0 102.0 58.8 51.1 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.7 5.3 11.2 108.1 63.5 51.8 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.6 13.3 14.8 104.6 59.1 50.1 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.7 3.9 8.5 91.8 58.6 50.3 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------