***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.8 6.1 14.1 131.7 68.7 60.5 0.5 4.0 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.2 5.1 10.7 118.5 66.1 57.3 0.3 2.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.8 10.5 14.0 130.7 70.2 59.9 0.9 5.3 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.5 14.1 115.9 64.2 56.0 5.6 8.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 12.9 14.7 122.9 67.6 57.4 1.4 5.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.7 9.1 15.0 128.9 69.9 60.3 1.0 4.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.8 4.6 10.7 119.9 67.7 57.6 0.5 2.1 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 14.6 16.7 125.9 70.1 59.3 4.9 10.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.7 15.9 128.9 71.5 59.4 1.1 4.8 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.7 15.5 120.1 67.9 57.4 1.3 4.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.9 15.1 121.0 66.5 57.8 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.1 9.1 16.2 131.3 71.7 61.0 1.8 4.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.0 15.3 119.7 68.5 56.7 2.5 6.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 8.4 13.3 17.1 127.0 70.0 59.1 2.9 6.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 9.2 14.1 123.8 70.8 58.4 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.4 8.1 15.0 124.4 69.7 58.9 1.3 3.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.1 5.2 10.1 114.9 66.6 56.9 0.8 1.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 8.7 16.6 123.2 68.0 58.8 2.3 5.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.1 11.5 120.3 67.2 57.5 0.5 3.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.6 8.1 21.9 125.9 70.0 59.3 3.2 4.6 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.4 12.6 15.5 133.4 72.6 60.5 1.9 4.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.9 7.3 10.6 114.0 67.0 56.8 0.5 2.8 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.5 8.2 13.1 124.5 68.7 58.2 0.4 4.4 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.2 14.5 16.2 128.2 70.9 59.7 1.9 5.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.2 10.8 15.6 126.4 68.5 58.6 0.8 4.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.6 6.6 16.7 138.0 74.7 62.1 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 6.7 14.7 129.4 68.9 59.4 0.3 3.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.4 13.3 116.1 67.2 56.5 1.4 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.3 18.5 124.3 68.5 59.5 3.7 7.4 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.8 11.7 123.8 66.4 58.8 0.5 3.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------