***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 7.9 10.1 13.1 150.1 76.6 67.5 0.0 1.3 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 8.1 10.5 12.2 158.2 75.7 68.9 0.9 3.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.6 11.3 12.4 147.3 75.0 67.8 0.7 2.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.9 8.3 11.7 123.2 71.0 61.5 1.1 4.6 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 9.7 10.2 13.8 135.1 72.8 65.4 1.7 6.3 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.6 11.2 122.8 66.4 62.0 0.5 3.1 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.4 9.2 11.8 153.3 75.0 67.4 0.5 1.7 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 12.8 14.6 14.9 144.2 76.6 68.8 2.1 8.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 6.6 8.1 12.7 135.6 73.1 66.4 0.4 3.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 11.7 13.9 15.0 140.1 75.3 68.1 0.7 5.8 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 9.5 9.3 13.2 131.0 70.9 64.8 0.4 5.0 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 8.3 10.1 13.1 138.2 74.8 66.8 0.7 2.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.6 13.6 123.7 68.3 62.4 0.5 3.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 10.7 13.8 16.2 151.5 76.9 68.6 2.4 5.2 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.6 9.3 8.6 110.6 69.9 58.5 0.8 2.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.3 8.5 13.0 129.5 70.5 63.9 0.6 4.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 7.9 9.3 11.2 146.0 73.5 66.2 1.2 3.0 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 9.1 10.9 16.5 150.8 77.9 70.7 2.0 4.8 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 9.0 12.2 12.6 158.1 76.8 69.5 1.1 2.7 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 11.9 16.3 19.0 156.7 80.5 72.4 2.1 4.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.1 7.8 12.6 136.5 71.8 66.2 0.9 2.8 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 8.6 10.7 12.0 151.0 75.0 68.5 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.9 9.4 12.9 150.9 76.0 68.4 0.5 2.3 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 10.2 12.9 14.8 148.4 76.2 69.2 1.3 3.8 6.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 8.4 9.8 15.1 143.1 73.1 66.7 0.9 4.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 3.7 6.1 11.7 123.0 66.3 62.3 0.8 2.7 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.7 9.0 14.1 148.4 75.2 67.5 0.3 2.2 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.0 9.8 9.9 117.4 70.4 59.9 1.0 3.7 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 15.5 19.7 17.4 155.7 79.8 71.8 1.7 6.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 10.3 13.0 12.3 159.9 76.9 69.3 0.4 3.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------