***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.4 2.0 2.4 -1.9 24.4 30.3 2.2 3.5 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.0 1.7 2.6 -1.7 27.5 32.8 2.1 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.1 2.6 2.9 -1.9 25.5 30.8 2.7 4.2 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -2.4 -2.4 -0.6 -2.3 23.8 24.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 2.3 2.1 0.7 -2.3 21.0 23.4 3.1 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 2.0 1.6 0.0 -2.3 18.5 24.2 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.4 1.4 2.5 -1.7 27.7 32.4 1.6 3.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -2.7 -3.0 0.5 -2.3 18.1 23.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 2.8 3.2 1.7 -2.2 22.9 25.0 3.8 4.6 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 2.5 2.7 1.1 -2.2 21.4 24.9 3.5 4.1 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 2.3 2.3 0.8 -2.4 19.6 22.9 3.4 4.1 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 2.9 2.5 0.6 -2.4 17.1 22.1 3.5 4.6 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.2 2.1 0.5 -2.4 18.9 23.1 3.5 4.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 3.3 3.0 2.7 -1.9 27.8 29.9 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.3 2.3 0.2 -2.4 22.5 25.7 3.2 3.9 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 2.9 2.7 0.3 -2.4 18.3 22.8 3.7 4.7 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.7 1.7 2.8 -1.5 29.0 33.6 2.2 3.2 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.9 1.3 -2.1 23.0 26.6 2.3 2.7 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 1.5 2.8 -1.7 27.6 32.7 2.2 3.6 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -2.2 18.5 24.0 0.4 1.8 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.8 3.0 2.4 -2.0 25.0 27.4 3.5 4.0 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.3 2.0 3.0 -1.5 28.1 33.3 2.5 4.0 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.2 3.1 -1.7 28.5 32.2 2.3 3.6 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.5 3.4 2.5 -1.9 26.1 29.1 3.5 4.8 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.9 2.0 1.1 -2.0 24.4 27.5 2.4 3.0 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 2.5 1.9 -0.1 -2.5 15.5 19.9 3.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.4 2.2 2.0 -1.9 24.8 29.6 2.4 3.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 2.7 3.0 -0.2 -2.4 21.5 24.6 3.9 4.4 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.8 -2.1 21.8 25.7 0.7 1.6 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.8 1.6 2.5 -1.8 26.2 32.0 1.9 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------