***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 0.3 0.5 2.8 -1.4 32.5 38.8 0.5 2.2 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 0.4 0.5 2.6 -1.6 30.6 38.7 0.5 1.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 1.2 0.7 3.2 -1.4 32.6 39.0 0.8 3.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.2 0.0 -1.6 35.8 37.4 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.2 1.2 1.2 -1.5 35.6 37.6 1.1 5.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.0 2.2 0.8 -1.3 37.5 39.9 1.2 5.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -0.1 0.0 2.7 -1.5 32.1 38.4 0.1 1.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.4 -2.1 1.2 -1.3 35.9 39.5 -2.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.0 2.1 2.3 -1.4 35.4 38.7 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.9 1.4 1.8 -1.3 36.5 39.5 1.2 3.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.2 1.8 1.2 -1.6 34.3 37.3 1.5 4.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.7 2.1 1.3 -1.4 35.2 38.2 1.4 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.3 2.5 1.0 -1.4 37.2 38.9 1.5 5.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.1 0.9 2.9 -1.3 34.9 39.9 0.8 4.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.8 2.4 0.6 -1.6 35.8 37.4 2.1 4.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.4 2.5 0.9 -1.5 35.5 37.5 2.0 5.5 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 0.4 0.3 2.9 -1.4 31.2 39.1 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.4 1.9 2.1 -1.1 38.9 41.0 1.0 2.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 0.2 -0.1 2.8 -1.6 30.6 38.8 -0.1 1.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.7 1.7 0.6 -0.9 41.7 43.2 -0.3 2.0 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.9 2.2 2.8 -1.3 35.5 38.8 1.8 4.3 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 0.7 0.6 2.9 -1.5 30.8 38.8 0.8 1.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 0.8 0.3 3.2 -1.5 31.7 39.2 0.4 2.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 1.9 1.8 2.8 -1.2 36.9 40.1 1.6 4.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.1 0.7 1.4 -1.3 34.4 38.8 0.6 3.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.6 2.1 1.0 -1.3 36.3 39.5 1.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.0 0.7 2.4 -1.3 34.0 39.4 0.7 3.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.6 0.3 -1.7 36.5 37.2 1.9 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -0.7 0.8 1.6 -1.0 39.9 41.9 -0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 0.1 0.0 2.5 -1.6 29.9 38.5 0.2 1.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------