***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.9 1.9 2.3 -1.9 26.3 37.0 2.4 3.2 4.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.1 0.6 2.5 -1.6 29.3 39.7 1.3 2.4 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.1 2.2 2.8 -1.9 26.6 37.6 2.8 3.8 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -3.2 -4.4 -0.3 -1.9 28.5 33.9 -1.8 0.1 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.0 2.6 1.2 -1.8 29.8 35.4 2.9 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.4 2.9 0.8 -1.3 33.9 39.0 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 0.6 0.2 2.4 -1.6 29.1 39.6 1.0 2.6 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.6 -2.7 0.9 -1.8 29.7 35.6 -2.3 -0.9 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.8 2.1 -1.9 29.1 35.7 2.9 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.0 2.5 1.5 -1.9 30.2 36.4 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.2 1.4 -1.9 29.5 35.4 2.6 4.5 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.7 1.8 1.1 -1.8 29.5 34.8 3.1 5.0 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.6 2.3 1.4 -1.7 31.8 36.8 2.5 3.9 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.6 2.3 2.8 -1.8 29.3 37.9 2.6 4.7 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 0.9 0.6 0.5 -2.1 27.4 32.4 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.4 1.1 -1.8 30.8 36.3 3.7 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 0.5 1.0 2.7 -1.3 30.5 41.1 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 0.9 1.9 1.5 -1.8 30.4 37.9 2.1 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.2 0.8 2.7 -1.7 29.0 39.4 1.4 3.0 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -1.8 28.5 36.8 0.2 1.6 2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.9 2.8 -1.7 28.5 37.6 3.0 4.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.1 0.9 2.9 -1.4 30.3 40.4 1.8 3.5 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.4 1.3 2.8 -1.7 29.1 38.6 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.1 2.7 -1.7 30.6 38.4 3.3 4.0 5.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.7 1.4 -1.8 29.0 36.2 2.0 3.1 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.0 0.6 -1.7 27.8 34.2 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.7 1.9 2.1 -1.7 28.5 37.6 2.4 3.5 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.7 0.3 -2.0 29.6 33.9 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.3 0.7 0.9 -1.8 29.4 37.0 0.9 1.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.2 0.3 2.4 -1.8 27.2 38.4 1.2 2.9 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------