***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -3.3 18.4 20.0 1.9 4.7 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 -1.1 -0.4 1.4 -2.8 22.3 23.4 1.0 3.3 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 0.7 0.2 1.4 -3.2 20.2 22.7 1.3 4.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 -3.3 -4.1 -2.9 -4.6 12.4 14.9 -1.8 -0.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 0.6 -0.8 -1.9 -4.9 8.9 11.9 1.8 4.5 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 0.3 -2.5 -3.2 -5.5 5.0 8.1 1.5 3.7 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 -1.1 -1.3 1.0 -2.9 19.0 21.6 0.6 2.8 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 -2.9 -5.9 -2.0 -5.0 8.2 11.4 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 0.8 0.0 -0.7 -4.6 11.7 13.7 1.7 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 0.4 -0.3 -1.2 -4.7 10.9 14.0 1.1 3.8 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 0.5 -0.9 -1.5 -5.0 9.6 12.6 1.7 4.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 0.0 -1.4 -2.1 -5.2 7.8 10.6 2.4 5.1 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 0.0 -1.3 -1.9 -5.5 8.6 10.9 2.0 4.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 0.4 -0.3 1.3 -3.5 20.9 23.2 0.9 5.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 0.2 -0.2 -1.9 -5.0 14.1 15.7 1.2 2.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 1.1 -0.9 -2.4 -5.3 8.4 10.9 2.7 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 1.3 -2.6 23.2 24.7 0.4 3.0 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 -1.2 -1.7 -1.1 -4.6 11.6 14.9 0.2 1.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -0.1 1.6 -2.7 22.9 24.4 0.6 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 -2.4 -3.7 -2.8 -5.2 6.8 10.5 -1.3 1.9 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 0.2 -0.3 0.4 -4.2 14.1 16.3 1.4 4.7 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 1.8 -2.5 24.3 25.9 0.9 2.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 1.8 -2.6 23.2 25.5 0.9 3.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 1.1 0.0 0.9 -3.7 17.8 20.6 1.9 7.0 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -4.1 13.4 15.3 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 0.8 -1.4 -3.4 -6.1 3.0 5.2 2.0 4.1 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 -0.6 -1.0 0.1 -3.6 15.9 17.6 2.5 4.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 0.6 -0.1 -2.4 -5.0 12.9 14.7 1.0 3.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 -1.3 -2.8 -1.7 -4.7 10.4 13.6 0.4 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 -1.1 -1.0 1.3 -2.9 20.3 22.4 0.7 3.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------