***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 -6.0 -3.8 -3.6 -0.6 38.6 45.9 -4.4 -3.0 -0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -5.9 -4.5 -3.5 -0.7 36.9 46.3 -4.6 -3.1 -1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -2.3 -3.5 -0.6 36.1 45.3 -2.5 -1.0 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -6.3 -8.7 -6.7 -0.8 37.7 46.8 -8.8 -7.1 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -4.7 -6.2 -0.7 36.2 46.9 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -6.2 -5.0 -7.9 -0.5 42.9 47.9 -6.7 -4.3 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -4.9 -4.3 -3.5 -0.8 36.5 45.2 -4.5 -2.7 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -10.3 -9.3 -7.5 -0.4 41.5 48.6 -10.1 -8.1 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -4.2 -3.7 -5.5 -0.6 37.4 47.2 -4.0 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -4.1 -6.7 -0.4 40.8 48.9 -4.6 -3.3 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -7.0 -0.7 37.4 47.0 -5.2 -3.3 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -5.8 -5.5 -7.5 -0.8 38.6 46.3 -6.0 -4.2 -3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -3.5 -7.3 -0.4 44.3 48.5 -5.3 -3.2 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -3.1 -3.4 -5.4 -0.5 37.9 47.7 -3.6 -1.4 -0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -3.4 -5.7 -0.9 36.5 45.7 -3.5 -2.8 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -3.3 -7.3 -0.6 40.8 47.5 -4.5 -2.8 -1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -5.3 -4.6 -3.3 -0.7 35.4 46.1 -4.7 -2.8 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -6.7 -5.1 -7.2 -0.3 42.6 49.6 -5.7 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -5.1 -4.0 -3.6 -0.6 37.1 46.2 -4.2 -2.4 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -10.6 -9.7 -7.7 0.2 49.6 52.2 -10.3 -9.6 -7.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -4.7 -3.8 -4.3 -0.6 37.0 46.4 -4.0 -2.9 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -3.7 -3.6 -0.7 33.9 45.4 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 -4.6 -3.8 -3.8 -0.6 36.9 45.9 -4.1 -2.8 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -4.2 -4.2 -5.7 -0.5 38.2 47.4 -4.4 -2.8 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 -5.1 -3.9 -4.9 -0.6 39.6 46.9 -4.6 -3.6 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -4.9 -7.8 -0.8 40.8 45.5 -5.3 -3.7 -2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 -5.2 -4.2 -3.9 -0.5 40.4 46.9 -4.4 -3.7 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -5.9 -5.1 -6.5 -0.7 38.4 47.2 -5.4 -3.9 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -7.5 -6.1 -7.3 -0.1 45.0 50.7 -7.4 -6.0 -4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -3.8 -3.6 -0.7 36.7 45.4 -4.3 -2.9 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------