***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 50.5 144.3 78.3 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 33.7 37.3 48.8 143.5 78.2 70.6 18.2 23.7 33.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 44.9 53.1 50.3 141.8 79.6 70.3 22.1 29.9 45.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 51.5 53.4 49.7 126.2 71.4 64.4 29.6 40.1 47.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 49.3 50.3 52.5 130.1 73.7 66.4 23.6 36.5 42.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 31.0 37.7 46.3 114.2 60.8 59.8 20.7 28.2 38.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 33.5 38.0 49.5 146.2 79.0 71.2 15.0 24.8 34.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 65.2 68.7 57.5 128.2 73.6 66.9 39.7 52.2 66.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 36.2 43.2 56.5 137.8 78.9 69.9 20.3 23.6 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 41.3 47.0 60.0 135.8 77.9 69.9 25.6 29.4 38.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 40.9 42.4 50.7 128.3 72.6 66.5 19.3 29.7 36.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 41.2 42.0 49.2 124.1 70.1 65.1 15.8 25.9 36.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 46.3 47.5 50.2 123.1 68.3 65.1 19.1 31.0 41.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 54.6 60.1 61.0 140.1 77.9 71.3 33.4 44.8 54.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.9 24.6 38.1 101.9 58.0 52.0 15.5 21.9 42.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 39.9 39.1 48.3 123.5 69.1 64.9 18.0 34.2 36.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 35.2 40.1 46.6 139.8 78.7 69.5 13.7 25.1 30.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 41.0 46.0 67.7 139.9 78.8 71.9 23.5 30.0 36.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 39.4 42.2 49.0 141.5 78.1 70.1 19.5 32.7 35.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 45.8 51.7 78.1 133.6 77.2 69.2 19.1 29.7 43.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 40.0 46.0 52.5 138.4 77.3 69.5 19.3 26.0 35.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 34.9 39.1 46.8 134.7 75.5 68.2 16.3 23.8 31.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 34.9 39.6 51.5 140.4 78.1 70.0 17.2 26.0 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 45.7 52.1 59.6 140.3 79.2 71.3 31.1 35.2 43.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 41.5 49.7 58.1 146.2 81.5 71.7 24.4 30.7 36.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 31.9 30.1 46.4 107.9 57.1 55.8 16.0 28.0 38.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 35.0 43.5 57.1 150.5 83.6 73.1 17.6 27.8 34.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 28.5 34.4 42.6 111.5 63.0 57.5 13.3 22.2 34.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 70.3 77.8 73.4 140.4 78.7 72.3 32.5 52.3 61.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 37.9 44.1 49.4 144.8 78.4 70.8 18.2 25.0 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------