***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 12.2 150.3 79.1 65.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 4.2 4.6 12.0 146.3 73.8 64.1 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 8.0 9.6 12.2 147.2 76.2 63.7 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 11.8 13.6 12.6 137.1 75.3 63.1 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 11.9 13.8 13.0 136.1 74.9 61.7 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.9 11.1 111.3 64.1 56.4 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.7 11.8 144.4 74.0 63.7 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 23.1 14.0 134.0 74.4 60.9 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.9 7.9 13.1 135.9 73.8 61.1 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.7 14.1 135.1 73.6 61.2 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 9.5 10.1 12.4 132.7 73.3 61.2 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.6 8.3 12.0 129.4 74.0 60.4 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.8 11.8 119.1 68.0 58.3 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 10.7 9.8 14.4 139.9 75.0 61.8 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.9 8.7 10.9 128.0 72.2 61.1 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.2 9.8 11.7 126.7 71.4 60.3 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.8 11.6 145.9 74.6 64.2 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.0 11.1 15.9 138.4 76.1 61.8 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 6.4 7.0 12.2 147.2 73.7 64.0 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 11.7 19.4 140.3 76.8 61.8 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 8.5 10.3 12.6 142.3 78.0 63.0 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.3 11.9 144.2 73.0 63.5 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.8 12.7 147.4 75.8 63.8 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.9 14.1 141.1 75.0 61.8 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 10.7 12.7 14.0 150.2 81.5 66.4 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.9 12.1 118.6 67.8 58.7 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 8.7 11.7 13.4 150.0 80.8 66.2 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 3.7 6.4 11.2 127.6 71.5 60.9 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 15.8 18.6 17.3 139.1 76.8 61.8 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.4 12.1 147.5 75.0 64.2 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------