***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 13.0 127.7 68.3 58.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.0 11.2 13.2 135.8 69.1 58.6 2.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.0 13.7 12.6 122.4 64.0 57.8 3.9 7.4 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.0 12.8 113.0 65.9 54.4 2.6 8.5 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.9 13.0 112.6 63.0 54.3 4.2 8.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.2 11.6 101.5 58.1 52.2 4.4 7.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.3 12.4 13.8 142.4 69.8 59.5 1.3 5.6 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.6 17.5 14.3 113.9 64.5 54.7 5.0 11.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.0 13.5 115.4 65.1 56.0 1.8 6.3 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.1 14.5 116.9 65.5 56.1 2.5 6.8 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.0 12.1 108.5 60.5 53.7 2.1 5.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.4 11.8 107.5 61.1 53.0 2.0 3.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.4 11.7 104.3 59.1 52.9 4.5 9.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 21.9 15.0 124.5 69.5 59.0 2.5 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.9 7.0 11.0 105.8 62.5 52.4 1.0 3.4 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.6 11.6 105.1 58.7 53.0 3.5 6.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.5 11.1 13.0 138.1 71.3 59.7 0.7 5.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 14.4 16.8 123.6 70.1 58.1 2.6 6.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.1 12.8 129.5 67.1 58.0 2.1 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 19.4 21.2 125.9 70.4 56.7 3.3 5.9 16.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.2 12.9 115.7 63.6 56.5 3.1 5.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.0 12.1 12.5 130.0 71.8 59.0 0.9 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.8 14.3 12.9 124.0 65.6 57.5 1.0 7.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.9 18.5 14.6 123.1 68.8 58.7 2.8 7.7 17.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.2 13.9 14.9 128.0 68.1 58.3 4.1 9.4 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.6 9.0 11.6 96.6 59.3 51.2 3.2 7.8 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.3 12.3 14.7 133.6 71.3 59.5 3.2 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.2 11.3 105.0 62.7 52.7 1.0 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 23.3 18.6 126.4 70.9 58.3 3.7 12.4 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.0 11.3 13.1 132.9 67.2 58.4 2.2 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------