***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 14.0 140.3 75.2 62.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.8 8.1 13.5 141.5 71.0 63.3 0.3 2.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 9.6 11.9 14.4 140.2 74.5 61.6 0.9 5.3 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.8 13.8 124.9 71.4 60.9 5.6 8.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.0 13.9 14.1 125.1 70.1 57.9 1.4 5.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.8 8.8 13.7 123.5 69.5 59.6 1.0 4.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.4 5.7 13.6 143.3 72.0 63.9 0.5 2.1 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.9 16.0 125.8 71.3 60.4 4.9 10.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 10.1 16.0 136.7 73.8 61.1 1.1 4.8 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.6 11.2 16.7 131.1 72.6 60.1 1.3 4.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 9.2 9.6 14.1 128.4 72.5 60.8 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 8.2 9.4 14.4 132.2 74.2 62.8 1.8 4.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.5 14.0 127.7 72.7 59.9 2.5 6.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.0 14.0 17.4 130.2 74.4 58.6 2.9 6.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.0 11.5 105.7 66.7 55.2 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.2 9.7 13.8 127.9 73.7 61.5 1.3 3.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 2.7 5.4 12.4 135.1 68.5 62.5 0.8 1.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 8.4 10.5 19.3 133.6 77.6 61.1 2.3 5.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.7 11.0 13.7 138.9 71.7 62.2 0.5 3.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.4 9.0 22.0 128.1 74.7 62.2 3.2 4.6 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.3 13.5 15.0 139.2 75.6 61.2 1.9 4.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.4 7.8 12.4 128.7 68.7 61.1 0.5 2.8 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.8 8.4 14.6 134.9 71.0 60.2 0.4 4.4 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.2 16.8 17.2 133.8 76.3 59.7 1.9 5.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 9.6 12.1 16.0 143.4 73.9 63.6 0.8 4.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.8 5.4 13.0 113.1 67.7 55.6 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 6.4 7.9 15.7 148.0 76.1 64.9 0.3 3.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.8 7.6 12.2 112.0 68.7 57.3 1.4 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 15.5 19.0 21.0 133.1 77.4 62.2 3.7 7.4 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.6 9.0 13.8 142.9 73.2 63.3 0.5 3.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------