***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-15.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 11.4 167.9 79.2 71.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 7.8 10.9 10.0 154.5 79.8 67.4 0.9 3.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 8.7 12.6 11.1 167.8 81.0 73.3 0.7 2.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 9.1 8.1 10.4 134.5 70.2 67.5 1.1 4.6 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 10.0 10.6 12.3 155.8 73.5 72.0 1.7 6.3 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 6.5 5.9 9.9 123.1 71.0 66.7 0.5 3.1 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 8.0 13.2 10.4 158.2 78.7 67.8 0.5 1.7 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 12.0 12.6 13.1 144.6 72.7 70.4 2.1 8.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 7.1 9.0 13.8 175.1 78.9 75.7 0.4 3.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 11.9 14.5 14.7 170.5 78.3 75.3 0.7 5.8 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 9.9 9.4 12.2 150.2 72.6 71.4 0.4 5.0 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 7.4 9.3 10.9 129.5 70.5 68.0 0.7 2.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.4 8.7 12.7 146.3 74.9 71.8 0.5 3.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 11.9 16.8 14.2 181.4 83.7 76.5 2.4 5.2 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 4.1 4.6 4.8 62.6 54.7 47.1 0.8 2.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 7.5 8.7 11.2 139.3 72.2 70.2 0.6 4.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 7.8 9.2 9.7 141.5 72.5 64.3 1.2 3.0 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 9.4 11.1 15.7 176.8 80.3 76.9 2.0 4.8 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.0 14.6 10.3 156.6 80.6 69.1 1.1 2.7 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.4 11.6 15.6 146.9 73.2 70.7 2.1 4.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.2 9.6 12.0 167.7 78.4 73.4 0.9 2.8 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 8.4 9.9 10.1 138.2 73.1 64.3 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 8.6 13.5 11.3 165.4 81.5 73.1 0.5 2.3 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 10.9 13.8 13.7 176.4 81.7 76.2 1.3 3.8 6.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 8.2 11.2 13.3 173.0 80.1 73.3 0.9 4.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 3.1 5.0 9.8 104.4 62.3 61.5 0.8 2.7 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.7 14.1 13.3 180.2 81.5 73.7 0.3 2.2 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 4.6 9.5 7.9 102.3 64.2 59.3 1.0 3.7 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 16.4 20.1 16.5 175.7 80.5 76.9 1.7 6.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 9.8 15.7 10.4 162.6 80.4 69.7 0.4 3.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------