***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 5.0 0.6 58.2 56.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.8 5.0 0.9 60.5 59.3 2.1 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.0 5.0 5.3 0.6 59.6 56.2 2.7 4.2 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -0.2 0.2 3.2 0.6 57.4 57.8 -1.9 -0.7 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.1 3.6 0.2 55.6 52.2 3.1 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.6 3.1 1.2 -1.0 37.3 38.2 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.4 4.8 0.8 58.2 58.1 1.6 3.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.2 -1.9 2.2 -0.7 39.7 42.2 -2.2 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.2 4.3 0.3 55.8 52.8 3.8 4.6 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.9 3.1 -0.3 46.5 46.4 3.5 4.1 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.1 3.3 -0.2 48.8 47.5 3.4 4.1 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.1 2.7 -0.7 39.1 41.8 3.5 4.6 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.5 2.0 -1.1 33.8 37.0 3.5 4.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.8 4.6 0.1 51.0 51.0 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.2 4.3 4.0 1.3 68.4 65.4 3.2 3.9 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.4 2.6 -0.5 43.4 44.3 3.7 4.7 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 4.2 3.6 4.9 1.1 60.8 61.5 2.2 3.2 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.9 2.4 2.5 -0.6 39.9 43.2 2.3 2.7 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.4 5.3 0.9 60.6 58.9 2.2 3.6 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 0.2 0.2 0.3 -1.1 31.8 36.9 0.4 1.8 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.7 4.9 0.5 57.9 55.3 3.5 4.0 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.4 4.7 5.3 1.2 63.2 62.4 2.5 4.0 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.1 5.4 0.7 58.8 57.1 2.3 3.6 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.6 4.2 0.0 48.6 49.4 3.5 4.8 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.5 3.5 0.5 57.0 55.2 2.4 3.0 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.1 1.4 -1.4 31.2 33.0 3.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.3 4.1 0.4 56.5 54.5 2.4 3.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.8 3.6 0.7 59.5 58.7 3.9 4.4 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.6 0.8 1.6 -0.8 36.0 40.4 0.7 1.6 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.6 5.1 0.8 58.9 58.1 1.9 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------