***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 5.6 0.7 54.3 55.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.9 5.4 0.7 52.2 54.8 2.2 4.8 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.0 5.9 0.7 52.7 55.2 2.8 5.3 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -0.3 0.2 4.1 0.9 57.7 57.4 -2.6 -1.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.1 4.6 0.8 54.2 56.2 3.0 4.4 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 4.1 5.1 2.6 0.3 55.7 53.0 2.5 3.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.3 5.2 0.6 51.9 54.6 1.9 4.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.6 -0.9 3.5 0.5 50.3 53.3 -3.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.9 5.2 0.7 52.6 55.9 3.5 5.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.5 4.2 0.6 51.2 54.4 3.6 5.4 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.3 5.1 4.5 0.6 52.3 55.0 3.7 4.6 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.6 5.4 4.1 0.5 51.6 53.4 3.7 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.6 3.4 0.3 52.0 52.3 3.6 5.3 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.2 5.3 0.6 51.3 54.2 4.4 6.1 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.3 4.2 1.0 58.2 58.7 3.4 4.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 5.5 5.2 3.9 0.5 53.3 54.3 3.9 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.3 5.2 0.7 53.4 55.2 1.9 5.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.5 3.7 0.4 50.4 53.2 3.0 4.5 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.7 5.7 0.7 52.4 54.9 2.0 5.2 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.3 1.7 1.5 0.2 48.3 51.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.4 5.6 0.8 54.5 56.1 3.2 5.1 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.9 5.6 0.7 54.4 55.5 2.2 5.4 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.6 5.9 0.7 52.6 54.8 2.7 5.1 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.4 5.1 0.6 51.7 54.4 4.2 5.7 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.3 4.3 0.7 55.6 56.1 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.6 4.9 3.1 0.1 49.5 50.5 3.5 5.0 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.2 4.8 0.6 54.9 54.9 2.7 4.0 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.5 4.3 0.9 57.1 57.7 4.5 5.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.2 2.7 0.3 49.6 52.2 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.0 5.6 0.6 52.1 54.7 2.1 4.7 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------