***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 5.1 0.8 56.9 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.3 4.8 0.8 51.7 55.1 0.5 1.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.8 5.3 0.7 57.0 54.5 0.8 3.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.2 1.0 3.7 1.1 59.6 58.5 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.4 4.0 0.7 55.4 55.2 1.1 5.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.8 2.0 -0.1 49.0 50.1 1.2 5.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 2.7 1.8 4.6 0.7 51.0 54.4 0.1 1.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.2 -1.0 2.7 0.0 46.0 49.7 -2.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.9 4.6 0.6 55.1 54.1 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.7 3.5 0.2 49.2 51.3 1.2 3.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.5 3.8 0.4 52.0 52.7 1.5 4.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.2 3.4 0.0 47.7 50.0 1.4 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.9 3.6 2.6 -0.2 45.7 48.3 1.5 5.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.1 2.1 4.6 0.2 43.7 51.0 0.8 4.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.5 4.1 1.5 62.0 62.2 2.1 4.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.2 3.2 0.2 51.7 51.9 2.0 5.5 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.6 4.5 0.8 54.4 55.5 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.4 2.5 3.0 0.0 45.2 49.3 1.0 2.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 3.2 2.5 5.1 0.7 52.8 54.9 -0.1 1.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.7 0.9 -0.3 41.8 46.9 -0.3 2.0 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.4 5.1 0.7 57.0 55.0 1.8 4.3 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.1 4.3 5.0 0.9 55.0 55.9 0.8 1.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.0 3.8 5.3 0.6 53.1 54.0 0.4 2.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.7 4.4 0.3 48.9 51.5 1.6 4.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.8 3.9 0.9 56.8 56.8 0.6 3.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.9 3.7 2.3 -0.5 42.2 46.5 1.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.5 4.3 0.8 55.7 55.4 0.7 3.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.8 3.9 1.2 59.9 59.1 1.9 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.9 1.2 2.1 -0.2 42.8 47.6 -0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.7 4.9 0.7 52.7 54.9 0.2 1.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------