***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 0.4 54.0 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.6 4.6 0.7 60.4 55.5 1.3 2.4 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.1 4.8 0.3 53.6 52.4 2.8 3.8 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.8 0.4 3.1 0.5 56.1 53.7 -1.8 0.1 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.5 3.3 0.0 48.7 49.1 2.9 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.1 0.8 -1.3 36.8 39.3 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.2 4.3 0.6 57.8 54.5 1.0 2.6 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -1.9 1.7 -1.0 37.7 41.3 -2.3 -0.9 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.1 3.8 -0.1 48.1 48.7 2.9 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.1 3.8 2.6 -0.7 41.4 44.2 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.3 2.8 -0.5 44.5 45.3 2.6 4.5 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.4 2.3 -1.0 38.1 41.2 3.1 5.0 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.3 1.4 -1.5 32.2 37.6 2.5 3.9 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.6 4.0 -0.3 48.3 48.0 2.6 4.7 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.3 3.7 1.1 61.0 59.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.2 2.2 -0.8 42.4 43.2 3.7 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.7 4.5 0.9 62.5 57.0 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.2 2.1 -0.9 37.3 42.3 2.1 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.8 4.8 0.6 58.7 55.0 1.4 3.0 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -1.4 32.5 37.9 0.2 1.6 2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.3 4.4 0.1 52.4 51.2 3.0 4.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.9 4.8 1.0 61.2 57.2 1.8 3.5 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.5 3.3 4.9 0.4 54.9 53.0 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.0 3.7 -0.4 45.9 46.9 3.3 4.0 5.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.6 3.3 0.3 55.0 52.3 2.0 3.1 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.5 2.0 0.9 -1.8 26.2 34.6 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.8 3.8 0.2 53.9 51.8 2.4 3.5 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 3.3 0.5 56.1 54.2 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.3 0.9 1.1 -1.2 34.8 39.9 0.9 1.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.6 4.6 0.6 56.9 54.4 1.2 2.9 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------